As featured on p. 218 of "Bloggers on the Bus," under the name "a MyDD blogger."

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Obama Camp Basically Saying They Can't Win OH or TX

Expectations game?

Barack Obama's campaign is forecasting that the Democratic presidential race will remain deadlocked after the primaries end, and the outcome may depend on a fight over whether delegations from Florida and Michigan are counted.

By the time the last primary is held June 7, Obama's advisers project he will have 1,806 delegates to 1,789 for New York Senator Hillary Clinton, according to a document outlining the scenario that was inadvertently attached to a release on delegate counts from yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries.

The forecast doesn't include Florida and Michigan, which were stripped of delegates by the Democratic National Committee for holding primaries ahead of the schedule set out by the party. Clinton, who won uncontested primaries in both states, is vowing a fight to have those delegates -- slated to be 366 in total -- seated at the nominating convention [...]

Obama's advisers are predicting victories in 19 of the remaining 27 Democratic primaries and caucuses, with Clinton winning the big states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the campaign document. The final contest is a primary June 7 in Puerto Rico.

If Clinton keeps winning the big battleground states I don't see a very clear path to the nomination for Obama, honestly. If someone sweeps on March 4 there's going to be a lot of pressure put on the loser to get out. The superdelegates might move en masse to the opponent. And if Obama doesn't get out, then follows up losing Ohio and Texas by losing Pennsylvania, that'll be really the end.

There's going to be a lot of potential momentum coming out of February, they have to capitalize on that in my view. Maybe they "inadvertently" leaked this document to get it on the record that they are not favored to win Ohio or Texas, so that if they do, it's a fatal blow.

Of course, Obama has raised $5.4 million dollars today, so maybe they're being completely straight, and they're in it for the long haul.

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