As featured on p. 218 of "Bloggers on the Bus," under the name "a MyDD blogger."

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

NJ-Gov: Christie Sinking

This is the first legitimate poll I've seen that puts Jon Corzine in front in the New Jersey Governor's race over Bush/Rove crony Chris Christie.

The numbers: Corzine 44%, Christie 43%, and independent Chris Daggett 4% (Daggett was not listed as a choice, but was a voluntary answer -- more on that later). This is within the ±4% margin of error, but again this is the first poll that has had Corzine ahead in a long time. A month ago, Christie led by 47%-42% over Corzine.

Interestingly, Corzine's approval rating remains in the negative zone: Approve 38%, Disapprove 50%. However, he appears to be getting enough respondents to pick him right now, if only reluctantly, due to disenchantment with Christie -- a common pattern in New Jersey elections, where Republicans often run strong right up until declining in October and November.

A half-sample of respondents were given Daggett's name as a choice. The result was was Corzine 38%, Christie 37%, Daggett 16%. Another half-sample was given a much lower-profile independent candidate as a choice, Gary Steele, and the result was not too different: Corzine and Christie tied at 38% each, Steele 12%.

There will actually be close to a dozen independent candidates on the ballot, but Corzine and Christie will be featured at the top. Given how New Jerseyites often come home to the Democrat in the final weeks, and that Daggett gives people an option to raise their dissatisfaction with Christie without giving him the Governorship, I'd guess that Corzine is in fairly good shape. He only needs about 45% of the vote to win, I would imagine. Blue Jersey has more.

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