Developments in Israel

I don't see how you could be awake on this planet and not view attempts at peace in the Middle East with a little skepticism. But the death of Yassir Arafat has certainly brought a new era of rapprochement, and today's latest olive branch, the release of 500 Palestinian prisoners, is extremely encouraging, coupled with the Israeli cabinet approval of a Gaza and partial West Bank pullout, and the cessation of bulldozing the homes of the families of suicide attackers. Clearly, the death of Arafat has given Sharon the political cover he needed to work toward a peaceful solution. I wrote when Arafat died that it would take the death of Sharon and a new set of leadership from a new generation to get anything done in the region. That still may be the case, but at least for now, things are progressing. These are the easier developments, however. The bigger issues, like a two-state solution, drawing of borders, and refugee right of return, are where we'll see who is truly interested in peace.

Jonathan Chait (who, incidentally, I went to college with) writes in the LA Times that recent events have proven that Sharon's hard-line policies, like building a separation wall and refusing to negotiate with Arafat, have worked brilliantly. I don't know if that's completely true. I think this would have happened no matter when Arafat passed (or Sharon, for that matter; it was the passing of the torch that was the important thing). As an accident of history, President Bush will get credit for Middle East peace shuld it reach a more permanent solution, but really, this is an exhalation from both sides, a belief that enough is enough, and it's time to end the intifada. Much like the dissolution of the Cold War states in Eastern Europe, changes of this nature have more to do with popular will (or popular exhaustion) than geopolitical pressure, in my view. And Arafat's death is the spark that allowed this will to take root.