Still the Economy, Stupid

I'm not the biggest evangelist of polls, but when the results jibe so much with what you experience in the day-to-day talking to people, I think it becomes worthy. I got this today from Greenberg-Quinlan Research. The poll shows a 36-55% right track-wrong track, and a 49% approval rating for Bush, which is pretty much where all the others have been (if not a little higher). On the message of the economy, however, there are some surprising numbers. This is from their report:

*Only 43% of respondents think the economy is "Excellent" of "Good". 53% believe the President is "out of touch" on the economy.

* When asked to focus on positive aspects of the economy, voters think of the housing boom and low interest rates, along with a lower unemployment rate.

* When asked to focus on the negative aspects, responses are richer and more multi-dimensional – focused on rising costs, exported jobs, reduced benefits at work, and macro imbalances, like the federal deficits.

* When thinking of the economy in general, voters focus much more on these negative dimensions and facts (53 to 39 percent). When asked to focus on “YOUR economic situation,” voters focus more on the positive (51 to 41 percent). But that is misleading. The better off (college educated) are critical of the general economy but positive about their own. Those less well off (high school educated) are negative about both.

* The Democrats have two strong narratives that dominate the Republican economic discussion: 1) tax cuts, deficits, and inaction on job outsourcing and health care that leave the economy in long-term trouble; and 2) policy that benefits the wealthiest and big corporations, while the middle class face rising economic burdens.

* Democrats now hold a 7-point advantage in a generic congressional contest (47 to 40 percent), which has the potential to translate into significant congressional gains.

Incidentally, 40% of the people in this survey were self-described conservatives, 40% moderates, and just 17% saw themselves as liberals. There is an absolute take-away here. A refined, honed message on jobs and the economy can be an absolute boon to the Democratic Party. The sentiment is already out there in the ether. All it would take is for the leadership to connect the dots, put forth a compelling narrative, and nationalize the message so that absolutely everyone in the country knows what a Democrat would do for their poicketbooks if they were elected. Nobody but the true believers buy the whole "Commie libruls are gonna take yer money away" argument anymore. In the past five years, government has expanded in size, government waste had exploded, deficits are skyrocketing, and it all occurred under GOP leadership. You can't pull the wool over Americans' eyes anymore. People know the truth by observing the climate in their own cities and towns. All Democrats have to do is to serve it up on a platter.

It's easy to get distracted by social issues and the like (and there are plenty of values issues about the economy, don't forget), but the way to retain Congressional power is by laser focusing on this kind of an economic narrative.