1858

That's what it feels like in Iraq time, and 1861 with the first shots fired at Fort Sumter could be just a few weeks away. Yesterday Iraq decided to delay the deadline for presenting its draft constitution, and I don't think seven days are going to solve the intractable problems between the major factions. The Shiites want a federal semi-autonomous regoin in the south and the Sunnis don't want that to happen; the Kurds basically want their own country and nobody wants to give it to them; both the Shiites and the Kurds want to keep the oil money and the Sunnis are scared Al Anbar will become an ethnic slum. And practically everyone wants Islamic Sharia law to be civil law except for some secular holdouts and the frantic US envoys. These aren't small issues of language. One deadline passed could beget another, and another, and another.

Of course the only group that's really on deadline is the US. The Administration simply has to get some troops out of there by spring to stave off public opinion, which has been turning against the war. Even the Iraqis understand this:

Iraq's national security adviser, Mowaffak Rubaie, said Monday he still expected U.S. military strength to be below 100,000 troops by early spring. About 138,000 American troops are now in Iraq.

But without stability before pullout, 1861 will come that much quicker. And many sides in the constitutional debate are already pushing that angle:

New elections could benefit Sunni Arabs, most of whom boycotted the January elections that seated the current assembly, leaving them with little clout in the constitutional debate. Sunni leaders are now encouraging participation in the next vote.

Kurdish and Shiite delegates accuse Sunni counterparts of holding out in the constitutional talks in hopes of forcing new elections, and warn that the tactic could result in the constitution being approved without Sunni delegates' approval.

Ultimately, "maybe Arab Sunnis will not be on board with us," said Othman, the Kurdish delegate.

If the next round fails, the recriminations will only get louder and louder. This is really really bad, and the worst part is that there's virtually nothing we can do about it. All we can do is push deadlines, and build up yet another artificial "turning the corner" moment for political purposes. But I honestly can't understand how anyone would believe that "we've turned the corner, we're winning" tripe anymore. Just how many corners are we expected to believe Iraq has? Is it an octagon? A dodecahedron? That is such a short-term strategy, crafted to minimize criticism for a month or so. Meanwhile the basic problems remain to fester and get worse.

You know, I think we have to speculate about why the Administration is so gung-ho about getting the troops out by spring (despite public denials). Could it be because we have another war to start by the midterm elections next fall?

President Bush says if Iran doesn't halt its nuclear program, "all options are on the table."

The president, vacationing in Texas, has delivered an unusually blunt threat in an interview with Israeli television.

He says the U-S and Israel are united in the goal of making sure Iran does not get nuclear weapons. He says military force would be any president's final option, but reminds the Israeli interviewer: "We've used force in the recent past to secure our country."

And we all know how well that's turning out.