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As featured on p. 218 of "Bloggers on the Bus," under the name "a MyDD blogger."

Tuesday, October 11, 2005

Constitution 2038 is gonna be perfect...

AP is reporting that the days and days of US negotiating on the Iraqi constitution has paid off.  Well, sort of.  Here's the deal:

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Iraqi negotiators reached a breakthrough deal on the constitution Tuesday and at least one Sunni Arab party said it would now urge its followers to approve the charter in this weekend's referendum.

Under the deal, the two sides agreed that a commission would be set up to consider amendments to the charter that would then be put to a vote in parliament and then submitted to a new referendum next year.


So let me get this straight.  The deal on the Constitution is that they'll write another Constitution next year?

And that won't work, so they'll write ANOTHER Constitution that'll get voted on in '07, and then there's the 2008 Constitution, and the '09, and the 2010 (The Year We Make Constitution)...

This does nothing but prolong the inevitable; autonomous areas in the North and South, and a restive Sunni population in the middle.  Do you think for a second that, once given these powers, Shiites and Kurds will vote to have them TAKEN AWAY?  I don't think so.  But apparently that's good enough for some Sunni groups:

A top Sunni negotiator, Ayad al-Samarraie of the Iraqi Islamic Party, said the measure would allow it to "stop the campaign rejecting the constitution and we will call on Sunni Arabs to vote yes." It was unclear if parliament would take a formal vote on the new deal with some lawmakers saying that measure may be read to the National Assembly on Wednesday.

The central addition allows the next parliament, which will be formed in Dec. 15 elections, to form the commission that will have four months to consider changes to the constitution. The changes would be approved by the entire parliament, then a referendum would be held two months later.

Sunni Arabs are hoping to have a stronger representation in the next parliament and want to make major amendments to the constitution, particularly to water down the provisions for federalism, which Shiites and Kurds strongly support.

The other additions include a statement stressing Iraqi unity and another states that the Arabic language should be used in the Kurdistan region, along with Kurdish -- issues important to the Sunni Arabs. The fourth underlines that former members of Saddam Hussein's ousted, Sunni-led Baath Party will only be prosecuted if they committed crimes.

Some moderate Sunni leaders once had positions in the Baath Party and fear being barred from politics by the De-Baathification process outlined in the constitution.


I'm not saying all of this is bad, but at this late date, it seems desperate.  These changes only suggest that there may be a way in the future to move Iraq away from a Shiite-dominated Islamic republic.  That doesn't pass the smell test.  These "promises" sound empty.  The Shiites could bottle changes up in committee, then plead that "we went through the democratic process and the changes were rejected."

I don't see how this is any different in real terms.  Of course, all that matters to the White House is that the referendum passes, so glowing speeches about Iraqi democracy and braving the insurgents and last throes may be spoke.

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