Leaders in the Senate

Elections aren't made a year out. All of this is subject to change. But at this time, the Democrats are poised to make a huge splash, and possibly take back the House and the Senate.

Sure, the GOP's splintering on several issues, plus the President's low approval ratings thanks to Katrina and Iraq, have something to do with this. But that's not the major factor. It's really that the Democratic House and Senate leadership, particularly the heads of the Campaign Committees (Chuck Schumer in the Senate, Rahm Emanuel in the House), are kicking the tails of their Republican counterparts. I'll get to Emanuel in a later post. First, Chuck.

Schumer has been able to recruit solid candidates in several battleground Senate races. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania is polling way ahead of Rick Santorum. Paul Hackett, the Iraq war veteran who narrowly lost a House seat in a strongly Republican district a couple months ago, is challenging Mike DeWine in Ohio (and Sherrod Brown might join him in a primary). Jon Tester is an appealing candidate in Montana to go up against Conrad Burns. Matt Brown and Sheldon Whitehouse will compete in a primary to unseat Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island. Claire McCaskill, who narrowly missed taking the governor's race in Missouri, will run against Jim Talent. All five of these races could be pickups. Plus there's an open Republican seat in Tennessee (Bill Frist is retiring to work on his stock portfolio) and Texas (Kay Bailey Hutchinson wants to be the governor).

Meanwhile, Liddy Dole, the Republican Campaign Committee Chair, must be tired of hearing the word "No." Rep. Shelly Moore Capito said "No" to facing Robert Byrd in West Virginia. Gov. John Hoevensaid "No" to facing Kent Conrad in North Dakota. Rep. Tom Osborne said "No" to facing Ben Nelson in Nebraska. Gov. Jim Douglas said "No" to facing Bernie Sanders for the open seat in Vermont. The only high-profile name that's said "Yes" so far is Florida's Cruella DeVille herself, Katherine Harris, and Bill Nelson is kicking her ass in polling. The challengers to Hillary Clinton are being pummeled as well.

There are Dem open seats in Maryland (Sarbanes) and Minnesota (Dayton). Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is in, but the Dem bench there is strong. And Minnesota's best Republican chance said no. It's very possible that the Democrats hold all of their seats in 2006.

Recruitment of candidates is essential to heading the Campaign Committee. Whatever the mood of the people, whatever the performance of the White House, in the end you're voting for and against people. And Charles Schumer is finding the best people to challenge the incumbent Republicans. Liddy Dole, er, isn't.

P.S. Proving that there are always exceptions to the rule, Senator Affleck? He'd be the worst actor on C-SPAN!