Another Corner Turned; Iraq Must Have a Lot of Angles

I am relieved that there was a relative lack of violence in today's parliamentary elections in Iraq. It's encouraging that there appears to have been a large Sunni turnout. There have been scattered reports from Sunnis about deliberate attempts to tamp down their vote; that in itself is somewhat encouaging in that they actually want to be a part of the government, although it's important to look and see if these reports have any validity.

Of course, this is not an ending but a beginning. We've turned so many supposed corners in Iraq, only to see a return of violence, no improvement in security or reconstruction, and flaring of sectarian tensions. Apparently it was too dangerous for many candidates to campaign in person; several candidates were assassinated, and most of the politicking was done on television, where Iyad Allawi had an unusually professional output:

The recent spike in U.S. and British media coverage of the campaign of Allawi may reflect a deeper U.S. effort to insure, by whatever means, his electoral victory. The western media blitz is highlighting the ostensible secularism and "professionalism" of Allawi's own campaign, featuring U.S.-style political ads, television spots, etc., and noting the current popularity in Iraqi polls of calls for a "strong leader." That may reflect an effort to recast some of Allawi's potential campaign weaknesses, including accusations that he shot six bound prisoners in the courtyard of a U.S.-run prison during the first months of the occupation as well as his support for reconstituting the Ba'athist leadership of the Iraqi military, as political strengths. In the days before the election Allawi was polling at about 20% -- meaning he could be the kingmaker negotiating between Shia'a and Kurdish-dominated parties which may not reach the needed 2/3 majority.

Wonder where Allawi's money is coming from... hmm... how curious...

The point is that today's vote signifies that all sides are now, at least temporarily, pushing for a political solution in Iraq. And they agree on one major point: that should happen without the continued presence of the US military, evidenced by the recent agreements at the Iraqi summit in Cairo (that Iraqi summits need to be held in Cairo instead of Iraq is something that needs to be, um, worked on). When Howard Dean famously uttered "The idea that we’re gonna win this war is an idea that unfortunately is just plain wrong," I think the word choice was off, but my interpretation was that the US cannot win this war militarily. Incidentally, that's an idea shared by pretty much everyone in the country, from Nancy Pelosi to Jack Murtha to John Warner to George Bush. The political system must be foregrounded in this effort.

Of course, the last time the Iraqis voted it took months to actually form the government, which dispirited the public and led to the increased violence we see in the country today. If anything, it's going to be even more difficult to work it out this time, given the fact that it'll be a longer term of office, the Sunnis participated in greater numbers, and the first order of business will be the rewriting of the constitution (which will bring back all the issues of federalism and oil revenue and Shiite-Sunni-Kurd cooperation that are, to put it mildly, intractable). This is where the United States could be helpful in helping a smooth transition. After that, it's really time to get out. Either Iraq is going to agree to compromise or they're not; I don't think the US military can affect that either way. Security and training can be done on the periphery and out of the line of fire. Our soldiers have worked very hard in really awful conditions, undermanned and under-equipped. They need to come home.