Laying in the Reids

Despite media reports of a coronation there's still a lot of uneasiness in conservative circles about the Alito nomination. I have no idea what the Democrats plan to do and I think that's a good thing. Despite early efforts by Feinstein to the contrary they have not tipped their hand. Apparently John Kerry's itching to filibuster (perhaps to get the liberal wing of the party excited about a re-nomination effort?), and Mary Landrieu isn't (because it'd be too time-consuming, I think she said... yeah, you're right, a lifetime appointment to the highest court in the land should be knocked out over the weekend). Three Democrats have signaled their willingness to vote for Alito. Four Republicans have yet to signal anything.

I don't know where Harry Reid is taking this thing, but the uncertainty is great. Any gambler knows that you don't telegraph. You keep your opponent guessing up until the very last minute. The unusual force of the speechifying by the Republicans, and the length of their speeches, signals that they're worried. Lincoln Chafee might just wet his pants; at this point WHATEVER he does will hurt him in his rough re-election bid to come.

I've been fairly agnostic about what the Democrats SHOULD do. It's easy to say filibuster and fuck the consequences but those consequences are real, and the best way to block radical judicial nominees is to win elections by explaining the progressive narrative to the American people. A nuclear option showdown right now is something neither side wants because it's so unpredictable. I don't think it would hurt Democrats so much as incumbents, but that could damage our standing in several key races.

What I don't want to see is confirmation before the State of the Union. The President views the speech as a political document; he's as much as said so. In that case, make him expend some of that political capital whining about the Alito confirmation. It makes him look weak, and it's time in the speech that would be elsewhere spent saber-rattling for an Iranian war or something.

Should be an interesting couple of days...