Sharon

When Yassir Arafat died I wrote that it would take a new generation of leaders to change anything in the Arab-Israeli conflict. I didn't know it would happen so quickly. Ariel Sharon is at the least in a coma, possibly brain damaged and rumored to be dead.

This comes at the worst possible time for Israel, when Sharon was developing a pragmatic, centrist third party in time for April elections. I don't know what happens now in Israel. The only party with any experienced leaders are the Likudniks under Netanyahu; however, Sharon rejected them by bolting to a third party, and the country seemed to be following his lead. I still think the Gaza pullout was part of a larger strategy to dig in to settlements in the West Bank, like giving up a little to maintain a lot. However, it moved the peace process forward, or at least set up conditions where it could move forward. I fear that the current tensions (rocket attacks north of Gaza, the imposition of a no-go zone there, the controversial separation wall) will only be exacerbated in the absence of leadership. Netanyahu is a neocon through and through, and will not likely brook any compromise. A government with him in power would be a crushing blow to peace and stability in the region. Mahmoud Abbas has his own problems and does not need this turn of events either. I hope for the best but am bracing for the worst.