Kadima Wins

In an election with low turnout, Ehud Olmert's centrist party in Israel might have delivered the death blow to Likud once and for all. Benjamin Netanyahu and his party might have slipped into fourth behind a far right populist party named Yisrael Beitenu. Another single-issue party, Gil, which ran solely on raising pensions, appears to have gotten 6-8 seats in the Parliament, where it had none up until now.

Olmert can now run the show, and continue the same path as Sharon was on before his stroke (or step out of that shadow, though I think following in the tradition probably helped him get elected). I still think that removing settlements to consolidate other gains will prove to be a bad idea, one that causes some serious anger. But any party that makes moves toward peace is one that will win over there. The people are simply weary.

The question, of course, is how Olmert will deal with Hamas. I say he ignores them and operates unilaterally, or directly with Mahmoud Abbas. Hamas will certainly resist any attempts to redraw the pre-1967 map, which will lead to more tension. But at least Kadima won't be inflaming those tensions to the extent that Likud would.

One thing it is amazing to see is the spectrum of choices for the Israeli people. I'm beginning to wonder whether the biggest problem in America is the entrenchment of the two-party system. When I visited Ireland (and since I'm pining for vacation again, all of my thoughts will inevitably go back there for the time being), a major story was about a three-day conference held by the Green Party. You literally couldn't find a story on the Greens in the United States if you tried. Third parties add voices to the debate, and they allow voters to choose the best idea rather than the least worst one. Though I think Democrats govern better than they campaign, I often find myself straining to defend them. Joe Biden doesn't speak for me on so many issues, but the party of Biden does, by default.

One thing that would really help third parties in this country, outside of getting rid of the whole "first past the post" system and effectively completely changing the governmental structure, is Instant Runoff Voting. Instead of making one choice for President, for example, you rank order the choices (Candidate a #1, b #2, etc., etc.) If nobody gets 50%, the candidate with the worst showing gets thrown out, and his votes go to whoever was #2 on those ballots, and so on until a 50%-plus-one winner is decided. This eliminates the concern about "throwing away" your vote. For example, it this was in place in Florida in 2000, where Nader's strong third place showing caused both Bush and Gore to finish under 50%, then with IRV Ralph would have been tossed out, with his votes going largely to Gore (presumably), giving him the state. At the same time, this frees up voters to choose third parties without the weight of the "throwaway vote" on their conscience. We desperately need voices outside the two-party system: sometimes I feel like the blogosphere is its own third party. IRV would go a long way.

We should abolish the ridiculous electoral college too, but that's for another day.