We Need A Winner

Yesterday Francine Busby captured 44% of the vote in a special election in California's 50th Congressional District to replace the disgraced Randy "Duke" Cunningham. This is pretty much what John Kerry scored in this district in 2004, although the turnout was far less yesterday than back then. Despite beating her nearest competitor by nearly three to one, Busby did not get the 50% + 1 required to make it out of a runoff. So she'll likely face former Rep. Brian Bilbray, the Republican with the most votes, on June 6, which is primary day in California.

This analysis suggests that Busby is in the driver's seat. I'm not so sure. If any district in the country was ready to hear an anti-corruption message, it would be the home of the Duke-Stir, who pleaded guilty to accepting over two million dollars in bribes from defense contractors and is currently serving time in federal prison. And yet Busby could not outpoll Kerry (OK, she did by about 0.6%). And though turnout in special elections like this is historically low, for some reason the Busby campaign was unable to raise any enthusiasm among the Democratic base (which is pretty small in this district, but still). Kos agrees that the turnout situation is disappointing.

The Democratic leadership thinks that the GOP implosion will ipso facto translate to Democratic victories in November. But the electorate is universally disenchanted with politics.

The GOP has proven, time and time again, that it is incapable of governing. But Democrats have not shown they are any different. They do not paint any bright lines between them and us. And they do nothing to motivate the Democratic base to turn out and vote.

My sense of pessimism for November's elections only gets deeper the more elections show lower and lower turnout. Our supporters have stopped giving a shit. They were burned three elections in a row, and seeing nothing different come from the leadership, it has become easier for them to tune out.

I really want to be encouraged, and while Busby did fine, a win yesterday would have been great, not only because we'd have flipped a seat, but the narrative of "Republicans in trouble" would have gotten a full airing in the media.

I'm still cautiously optimistic for November, more because of the quality of opponents we have on our side. Also, this is a partisan red district where the RNC dumped about $300,000 at the end of the race. Forcing them to spend money on safe seats spreads them thin.

But we need a winner. We need a little hope out here.