Why I'm Optimistic About 2006

Thereisnospoon, whose opinion I respect, wrote a very disheartening post about how 2006 will be a major disappointment for Democrats. I have to say I disagree. And I do so for a very simple reason.

The people that decide elections don't vote for ideology. They vote for candidates. And we have the better candidates.

Now, ideology is of course a part of the picture, and on that scale the optics are moving in our direction (if you'll allow me to butcher a metaphor).  People are starting to question Republicanism and the GOP has nowhere else to go.  They've built their entire worldview on that short, six-word epigram of "smaller government, stronger military, moral values," and people sense that it's not working.  In this way their defined brand can be a hindrance and not a help.  Sure, they're trying to blame it all on Bush and claim he's "not a real conservative" but I don't think anyone outside the real Kool-Aid drinkers are going to believe that.  Thereisnospoon is absolutely correct that we need to define the message.  But I digress...

Here on the blog we have our resident commenter Hooper. Something of a fixture around these parts. The other day, on a post about the ridiculous Senate Judiciary passage of the gay marriage bill from a storage closet (literally "in the closet" about discriminating against gays), he chimed in with this:

But can the Dems come with a likable candidate? Clinton was more likable than Bush and Dole, W was more likable than Gore and Kerry - it's likability, I tell you! Nothing else matters (seemingly).

I don't know if I totally agree, and he ignores the role of the media in painting someone as likable, but there's something to that.  There's a correlative between Halloween mask sales and who wins the Presidency that year.  Likability is important.  More than that, however, it's about the MATCHUP.  This is why I don't pretend to speak about 2008, because I have no idea what the matchup will be.  But from where I'm sitting now, in 2006, we have some very favorable matchups.

(quick basketball analogy: if it was just about the teams, San Antonio would have whipped Dallas in 5 games.  But the Spurs were built to handle teams with big men and post-up games.  Nowitzki is a bad matchup, forcing them to go small, and the Mavs' quick guards match up well against the Spurs'.  This is why Dallas would have elminated the best team in basketball last night if Jason Terry wasn't suspended.)

Take PA-10.  We have a naval reserve officer.  They have a guy accused of strangling his mistress.

Or PA-08.  We have an Iraq War veteran who's 32 and full of energy.  They have a first-termer whose signature accomplishment is trrying to ban MySpace.

Or CA-50.  We have an school board member.  They have a lobbyist who lives in Virginia.

Or NC-11.  We have a quarterback.  An NFL quarterback!  They have the guy who tried to block funding for the 9/11 memorial in Shanksville, PA.

And I could go on and on and on.  We have very favorable matchups.  53 veteran challengers are running as Democrats.  That's practically one out of every 4 challenges.  There are really solid Dem candidates up and down the ledger.  Ex-congressmen like Nick Lampson and Ken Lucas.  Jim Webb.  Jon Tester.  Ned!

I'm not completely on board with Rahm Emanuel and Chuck Schumer, and I think a lot of this recruitment is happening in spite of them.  It's happening because so many Americans are seeing the disaster we have masquerading as leadership and have jumped in to take a stand and make a difference.  But clearly the D-Trip and the D-Stick are kicking ass over their Republican counterparts.  Liddy Dole?  Who'd she recruit?  Katherine Harris?

The good news is that the slate of candidates who will put us over the top are really good on the issues.  They are "standing up," in thereisnospoon's parlance.  They are going to be attractive to the independents and prior non-voters that decide elections.  Look at this video and tell me this guy is one of those mushy Democrats that has "no message."

We're going to win in 2006 in spite of ourselves.  In spite of the DC class that still doesn't totally get it.  In spite of what will likely be something of a money disadvantage (although YOU can change that by donating).  In spite of the protection racket of incumbency.  In spite of the doomsayers.  We're going to win because we have really fine men and women who have decided to become the change they wanted to see.  And it's up to us in the netroots to support them.