Ahmadinejad's "play to the base" strategy

The current bluster over our conflict with Iran, while tempering in recent weeks, always neglects the peculiarities of the political system in Tehran.



The position of President over there has no power to make war, no power to set foreign policy, and can be overruled by the Supreme Leader and the judiciary on virtually everything.

In such an environment, a new President, especially one elected by a razor-thin margin, is at pains to aggrandize power. But Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is managing to do it. And the United States is making it a lot easier for that process to occur.

This story in The Guardian shows that Ahmadinejad, while often dismissed as a bomb-throwing lunatic, is actually a pretty skillful politician who's used every opportunity the West has given him to become the most popular figure in an unpoopular government.

The popularity of Iran's controversial leader, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is surging almost a year after he unexpectedly won closely contested presidential elections, Iranian officials and western diplomats said on Tuesday.

Attributing his success to his populist style and fortnightly meet-the-people tours of the country, the sources said, as matters stand, Mr Ahmadinejad was the clear favourite to win a second term in 2009.

The perception that the president was standing up to the US over the nuclear issue was also boosting his standing.

"He's more popular now than a year ago. He's on the rise," said Nasser Hadian-Jazy, a professor of political science at Tehran University. "I guess he has a 70% approval rating right now. He portrays himself as a simple man doing an honest job. He's comfortable communicating with ordinary people."

While there are no reliable national opinion polls in Iran, western diplomats acknowledged that support for Mr Ahmadinejad is growing, defying widespread predictions after last June's election that he would not last more than three months.

This is incredibly dangerous. We all know that Ahmadinejad has been demonized in the Western press, with his inflammatory comments on Jews and the Holocaust highlighted, and his every utterance on the Iranian nuclear program dutifully reported as if he's the dictator of the country. I've often said that invading Iran because of that crazy Ahmadinejad is like invading the United States because of that nutty Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert.

This serves the US warhawk interests very well. Every war needs a villain. Ahmadinejad is painted as irrational and unstable because it helps the case for war to have a nutcase running the show. He can't be trusted with nuclear weapins, the narrative goes. He can't be trusted with inspections. He can't be trusted at all. So he must be overthrown.

If we've learned anything from the events of 9/11, it's that a people will rally around their leader in a time of crisis. This is especially true if they don't already have a predetermined opinion on him or her. By all accounts, Iran's government is not that popular. The voters elected a reformer, Mohammed Khatami, to two terms, and watched as his efforts to reform the country from within were frustrated by the mullahs at every turn. That we never sought to encourage the reform movement in Iran during Khatami's reign was a major error.

Ahmadinejad's victory had very little to do with a return to hardline conservatism in the country, and a lot to do with his campaign message of economic populism. Thanks to high oil revenues he's been given some credit for a relative resurgence of the economy. And he's been spending quite a bit on subsidies and handouts to the rural communities. Ahmadinejad's move has clearly been to get the public, particularly in the small towns, on his side, by presenting himself as an incorruptable man of the people. It's working, particularly because he's been made into a symbol by the US.

"An indication of his power is the way he has whipped up public opinion on the nuclear energy issue," a western diplomat said. "If there was an election today, he would win." It was possible that Mr Ahmadinejad could become a liability to the government if Iran were taken to the UN security council, he added. "But I think in that situation, he gets stronger."

Vahid Karimi, of the government-affiliated Institute for Political and International Studies, said: "Certainly his popularity is increasing. People like what he says. It's not so much because he stands up to the west but because he's not corrupt. This is very important." Independent Iranian sources said many people were surprised that Mr Ahmadinejad had not turned out to be as socially conservative as many expected. His attacks on the privileges enjoyed by some among Iran's ruling clerical elite and his recent unsuccessful attempt to allow women to attend football matches had made a big impact.

It's very interesting what he's doing. Ahmadinejad is leveraging the demonization by the US and using it as a means to rally the people to his side. And he's also using the popular discontent with the Iranian leadership by setting himself up as their opposite number. He's undoubtedly more popular than the clerics now. He goes out every couple weeks to the countryside to meet with constituents, in direct opposition to the unaccountable leaders of the country. A year ago the Supreme Leader and the Guardian Council would easily have been able to rein him in. But this is not the case today. He's played to his base, and succeeded.

And this is worrisome. If the US needed a boogeyman so badly, the mullahs could have easily sufficed. The people would not automatically rally to their cause after 27 years of Islamic Revolution. But Ahmadinejad was more of an unknown quantity. And he's become a hero of the Muslim world, a symbol of the perceived "clash of civilizations". Just as the war in Iraq has made Iran stronger than ever before, our persistent rhetoric has made Ahmadinejad stronger than ever as well.

This guy is very calculated. Faced with restraints on his power, he's taken advantage of virtually every opportunity to rise to a very high level. We've helped to create a monster. Instead of seeking out reformists and moderates, we've instead turned a dangerous religious hardliner into a heroic symbol of the Islamic world.