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As featured on p. 218 of "Bloggers on the Bus," under the name "a MyDD blogger."

Monday, July 31, 2006

Don't Open Your Mouth

In my last post on the Israel-Hezbollah war, I wrote:

Anytime you lead off with "a new Middle East" that's going to rattle everyone in power in the old Middle East. And any time you hold out for a "sustainable cease-fire" you admit that you couldn't care less about those dying today. So the strategy is to hold the entire Middle East in utter comtempt and once again force democracy through the barrel of a gun. See Iraq for how that ends up working.

Whatever happened to speaking softly and carrying a big stick? The threat of violence is often more effective than the violence itself.


This is being played out in the last few days. Instead of keeping quiet and letting everyone believe they're idiots, Olmert and his cronies opened their mouths and removed all doubt.

Hezbollah is a terror organization that fires rockets indiscriminantly into Israel, positions their artillery under civilian residences and UN outposts, and will use any opportunity to use the language of martyrdom to gain sympathy. An enemy like this will never attack directly, with uniforms and phalanxes and pinzer movements. The wars of the 21st century will all be fought this way. Hell, the biggest war of the 18th century, the one that achieved American independence, was fought this way. And you can't fight an unconventional war conventionally.

Yet this is exactly what Israel, and (allegedly) its allies in this country, appear to be doing. They're trying to stop guerrilla fighters with an air war, which is bound to lead to a tragedy like the one in Qana, especially when Hezbollah has a history of using human shields. Then, after claiming to institute a temporary 48-hour cease-fire, they break it about 18 hours in, then reject all calls for a permanent cease-fire and give authorization for a wider war and a ground offensive. This has only added to the rhetoric of martyrdom that has rallied the entire Islamic world to Hezbollah's cause. Lebanon has no reason to support Hezbollah, which caused this mess, which has intervened in their lives and made them miserable for decades. 87% of those Lebanese now support Hezbollah. Israel is talking about taking back Bint Jbail, which they abandoned after a three-day offensive. What the hell is the strategy here?

Meanwhile, the US is clinging to their brother in blood like a sock to a T-shirt after an hour in the dryer, matching failed strategy with failed strategy. Christopher Dickey writes:

Imagine, if you will, that arsonists have set your apartment block on fire. You call 911 and plead for help. The dispatcher tells you of her “determination to work immediately with the utmost urgency” to douse the flames, but only if plans can be agreed on for the new building to be erected when the decrepit old one has gone up in smoke. She’s stalling, hoping the arsonists will be eliminated by the conflagration. And she’s got a great vision for the way that block should look some day. That’s what counts. Not your furniture, or for that matter, your family inside … No wonder Siniora looked distraught as the conference closed.


He also catches on to the fact that, the way this war is being waged, Hezbollah necessarily has the edge.

The bottom line: Hizbullah is winning. That’s the hideous truth about the direction this war is taking, not in spite of the way the Israelis have waged their counterattack, but precisely because of it. As my source Mr. Frankly put it, “Hizbullah is eating their lunch.”

We’re talking about a militia—a small guerrilla army of a few thousand fighters, in fact—that plays all the dirty games that guerrillas always play. It blends in with the local population. It draws fire against innocents. But it’s also fighting like hell against an Israeli military machine that is supposed to be world class. And despite the onslaught of the much-vaunted Tsahal, Hizbullah continues to pepper Israel itself with hundreds of rockets a day.

The United States, following Israel’s lead, does not want an immediate ceasefire precisely because that would hand Hizbullah a classic guerrilla-style victory: it started this fight against a much greater military force—and it’s still standing. In the context of a region where vast Arab armies have been defeated in days, for a militia to hold out one week, two weeks and more, is seen as heroic. Hizbullah is the aggressor, the underdog and the noble survivor, all at once. “It’s that deadly combination of the expectation game, which Hizbullah have won, and the victim game, which they’ve also won,” as my straight-talking friend put it.


Like I said, don't open your mouth and remove all doubt. If you decide on military conflict, you'd better make damn sure you win. Or at least, make sure you know what you're doing.

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