August 9 - A New Beginning

The Lieberman-Lamont race will play itself out tonight. And at some point we'll know whether we have an incumbent victory, or Lamont in a 2-way race in November, or a 3-way race (which is apparently a done deal if Joementum loses, but there will be a lot of pressure on him to do otherwise).

And then it's on to November. I'm sure a 3-way race will garner a lot of attention. But there's simply so much to do between now and Election Day that the focus will have to widen. The Democrats have some great candidates running, men and women who represent a clear change to the status quo. And a Washington Post poll confirms that this will be a change election:

Most Americans describe themselves as being in an anti-incumbent mood heading into this fall's midterm congressional elections, and the percentage of people who approve of their own representative's performance is at the lowest level since 1994, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

As attention turns to Connecticut for Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman's Democratic primary showdown today, the poll found some of the same political currents that have buffeted his campaign flowing through the national electorate. The public has soured on politicians backing the Iraq war, which Democrats consider the most important issue of the election.

Eighty-one percent of Democrats say the war was not worth fighting, and 70 percent feel that way "strongly." A majority of Democrats, 54 percent, say a candidate endorsing Bush's Iraq policy would be less likely to get their vote, compared with 37 percent for whom it would not make much difference. Two in three Democrats say it is time to begin decreasing troop levels in Iraq, although only one in four supports immediate withdrawal.

The bottom line is that the candidates who come out strongly on the war, who represent a clear difference to "stay the course," will be rewarded. End of story.

Especially worrisome for members of Congress is that the proportion of Americans who approve of their own representative's performance has fallen sharply. Traditionally, voters may express disapproval of Congress as a whole but still vote for their own member, even from the majority party. But 55 percent now approve of their lawmaker, a seven-percentage-point drop over three months and the lowest such finding since 1994, the last time control of the House switched parties.

"That's dramatic," said Republican consultant Ed Rollins, who was White House political director under President Ronald Reagan.

In a small boost for Bush, his approval rating inched up to 40 percent, two percentage points higher than in June and seven higher than in May, suggesting he may have arrested a slide that deeply unnerved Republican lawmakers and strategists. But Bush's standing remains weak for a president in a midterm election year and problematic three months before Election Day.

40% is pretty bad on the eve of an election, not to mention the expected, traditional midterm losses for the party in power (although that conventional wisdom hasn't held the last two midterm election cycles).

Jonathan Singer writes:

Also of concern to Republicans as they desperately try to maintain control of the House: voters favor Congressional Democrats over Congressional Republicans on both the issue of Iraq (43 percent to 40 percent) and the War on Terror (46 percent to 38 percent), numbers that seriously call into question the Republicans' belief that their majorities will be saved if they only hammer away on national defense issues.

I can only hope the Republicans go to the fear well again. The evidence tells me that the country is sick of it.

To the extent that Democratic candidates have the resources to promote themselves locally, and the internal strength to promote a forceful and clear message of change, the chances for a Congressional takeover look better and better.