Sticking a Fork In It

One thing about Rahm Emanuel is that he's shrewd as hell (and would you expect any less from the brother of Ari from Entourage? OK, the model for Ari from Entourage, Ari Emanuel. Incidentally, Rahm should play that up more - the guy's a beloved character, at least to the HBO crowd). Atrios found this quote, and it's clear that he's getting out in front of Tuesday's Connecticut Senate primary:

Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said Friday he is not worried about the fallout from the Senate primary on House races, arguing that the message from Connecticut is that anyone supporting Bush’s war policies is in deep trouble. “What’s playing out here is that being a rubber stamp for George Bush is politically dangerous to life-threatening,” he said.

The political ju-jitsu here is striking, especially coming from an incumbent member of the DC establishment. But it's very, very smart. Since the entire world is paying attention to this Senate primary, why not turn it into a campaign theme: vote Democratic this November if you want to support checks and balances. Those that enable Bush need to go; those that oppose him will be rewarded. Since the media moons over narratives like this, and always want to cast particular events as part of a larger picture, this should get some play.

I don't think it's entirely true. This is a PRIMARY we're talking about, and its implications for the midterms as a whole leave out the fact that there will be Republicans and independents voting in November. I do think that a Lamont victory will excite the base, and base turnout has been crucial the last few elections. So there's a grain of truth. But it's a great streategy for Emanuel to come out this forcefully and make sure the tea leaves are being read in a favorable way. It's nothing short of amazing, however, that Rahm is doing this BEFORE the primary, essentially sticking the fork in Lieberman before he's done.

I do agree with Chris Bowers that, regardless of the polls, the election will be tight. Turnout will be the key, and Lieberman's been at it in Connecticut for 30 years, so even an incomptent staff with that kind of experience should be able to gain a few points in the ground game. But, pay attention: those who think that this primary hurts the party ought to read this:

From May through Friday, 11,496 unaffiliated voters became registered Democrats. From May through the end of July, 10,344 new voters became registered Democrats, said Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz. "If you think about those Democrats, those are people who are obviously motivated to participate. That could have an impact on not only turnout, but election results," Bysiewicz said.

It's GREAT to have that kind of excitement in the state for Democrats. That will really help in November, when 3 endangered moderate Republicans face challenges for Congress. Having 11,000 extra excited and engaged voters will help a lot in those races. This is why I continue to think that primaries can be so positive for the party.

P.S. I thought Lamont's appearance on ABC's This Week was really fantastic. I'm pulling for the guy; he's overcome tremendously long odds just to get this far, and you get the feeling that he's doing what's genuine for himself.