CA-GOV: Drilling Down Into The Polls

Most political reporters look at raw poll numbers, maybe at the favorable-unfavorable number, and draw their own conclusions. Some actually go into the data and look for areas of strength or weakness, and how that may intersect with trends as the campaign goes forward. I think this is more important, because it puts you on the path of where the race might be in 6 weeks rather than where it is right now.

Robert Salladay does this kind of analysis for the latest Field Poll, the typically accurate survey that shows a 10-point edge for Gov. Schwarzenegger.

•One negative shift in voter perceptions of the Governor that has occurred over the past two years is that more voters now believe that when making decisions on important policy matters Schwarzenegger is more likely to do what is politically popular (48%) than what he believes is right (41%). This contrasts with the views that voters held in 2004 when, by a 61% to 28% margin, voters felt Schwarzenegger made such decisions more on what he believed than what was politically expedient.

•Another area where voters are now more critical of the Governor relates to his 2003 recall election campaign promise to reduce the power of special interests in Sacramento. The current survey finds that a majority (51%) of voters thinks Schwarzenegger has done little or nothing to reduce the influence of special interests, while 41% feel he has done a great deal or some in this regard. Two years ago fewer voters (41%) felt the Governor had done little or nothing in reducing the power of special interests.

These are major campaign themes for Angelides, and it shows that, despite all the talk of how he's failing to generate enthusiasm, his attacks have the ability to shape the debate. These ideas that Arnold "shifts with the political winds," and consistently stands with special interests over the people, are reinforced by most of the IE commercials and messaging. This suggests that these weak areas could have greater impact in the weeks to come.

And the other great untold story inside the polls comes from PowerPAC and the New Democrat Network, which did a survey of 600 Spanish dominant likely voters and showed Angelides ahead 64-21, with Arnold getting lower approval ratings than George W. Bush.

Some of the key findings include:

• Among this audience, Phil Angelides is leading Schwarzenegger 64% to 21%, despite more than half of these voters having no positive or negative opinion of Angelides (54% say he is unknown to them). This strengthens a recent Field Poll finding that Angelides is also leading with all Latinos by 42%.

• Schwarzenegger is not only deeply unpopular in these communities, with 69% holding a negative view of him, but he is also seen as untrustworthy. 73% of these voters said they do not trust Schwarzenegger to represent the interests of the Latino community.

• These voters are concerned about their growing inability to afford a middle-class life in California, listing high cost of living, lack of affordable housing, and high natural gas and electricity bills among their top concerns facing the state. The national debate over immigration is also deeply important to these voters, with nearly 60% saying growing anti-immigrant and anti-Latino sentiment in the country has affected them and their family.

• Fully 68% of these voters said the recent comments by Gov. Schwarzenegger, in which he referenced a Latina Assemblywoman as being “very hot” due to her “black blood mixed with Latino blood” were insensitive or racist, with only 26% agreeing the comments were “mostly harmless,” as was the primary reaction portrayed in the media.

Now, clearly Angelides needs to seal the deal with this constituency by making sure they understand his vision for California. But if this dissatisfaction can be moved into action, it could be a sleeping giant in this race. The move in Congress to put up a fence on the border with Mexico won't help either. Latinos are feeling a deep sense of being attacked and humiliated, and the last time that happened in California, after Prop. 187, it completely changed the electoral makeup of the state. In this poll Prop. 187 is STILL a driving factor moving people to vote for Angelides. Just yesterday 300 Latinos were arrested in downtown LA for staging civil disobedience (so civil, in fact, that the police had a list of names to arrest before the demonstration). There is a voter registration drive afoot to make sure 1 million new Latino-Americans get to the polls. All of this adds up to a growing wave that could produce the upset.

If you drill down into the polls, all of the elements are there to elect Phil Angelides. GOTV and maximizing the next six weeks are the key.