CA-50: The Troika?

I already think that two House districts in California (CA-04, CA-11) are within striking distance of the Democrats, despite the partisan gerrymander. Could it be that a third is in play?

In an election in California's 50th Congressional District today, 10/16/06, Republican incumbent Brian Bilbray is narrowly ahead of Democrat challenger Francine Busby, 49% to 46%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV San Diego. Since a SurveyUSA KGTV-TV poll released 9/13/06, Bilbray has lost 5 points and Busby has gained 6 points. Bilbray had led by 14 points, now leads by 3. Bilbray gets 85% of Republican votes. Busby gets 87% of Democrat votes. These numbers are similar to last month's. Most of the shrinkage in Bilbray's advantage is because the Republican edge in the composition of CA50 likely voters has decreased from 14 points to 6 points.

Busby has competed against Bilbray for this seat three times in seven months. Her 46% number in this poll is pretty much in line with what she got (45%) in the other two elections. The difference is that Brian Bilbray may be under a grand jury investigation over his residency status. And Francine Busby has learned from her other two losses by running against Bilbray's ethical questions this time instead of Duke Cunningham's:

If Brian Bilbray is indeed being investigated by a criminal Grand Jury with the District Attorney's office, the voters of the 50th District deserve to know. They have a right to know because they have endured the Cunningham scandal. They have endured a year without effective congressional representation and they have endured a series of very difficult elections that cost over $15 million dollars. All because an elected official refused to be honest with voters and fully disclose the facts in a timely fashion.

Now, we find ourselves in similar circumstances. The citizens of the 50th District deserve no less than the full truth before casting their votes on November 7. Brian Bilbray must tell the voters of the 50th District if he is being investigated by a criminal Grand Jury for fraud. The people of this district have been through enough. They deserve nothing less.

Bilbray, for his part, is contesting the story. Then again, Curt Weldon claims the whole world is out to get him and that he's not under investigation when the Feds have apparently been listening in for months.

A grand jury, impaneled in Washington in May, has obtained evidence gathered over at least four months through wiretaps of Washington area cellphone numbers and has scrutinized whether Weldon received anything of value, according to the sources. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the investigation.

The investigation focuses on Weldon's support of the Russian-managed Itera International Energy Corp., one of the world's largest oil and gas firms, while that company paid fees to Solutions North America, the company that Karen Weldon and Sexton operate.

The congressman, for example, intervened on Itera's behalf when U.S. officials canceled a federal grant to the company. He also encouraged U.S. companies to do business with Itera at a time when its reputation had been sullied by accusations of Russian corruption.

So believing a US Congressman under investigation who says he's not under investigation is dubious.

That Francine Busby is making a race of this at this late stage is, frankly, amazing. I think this is a real longshot given the number of times she's competed for this seat recently, and the fact that her opponent will almost certainly use her out-of-context "you don't need papers for voting" comment between now and November. But winning the seat that Democrats put s much faith in back in June would be a sweet victory.

CA-11 UPDATE: McNerney gets another newspaper endorsement wherein the editorial board calls Rep. Richard Pombo an "embarrassment."