Flipping Seats Out West

One of the many candidates I've donated to this cycle, based solely on their record, is Jerry McNerney, a wind farmer whose son, who entered the Air Force after 9/11, encouraged him to serve in Congress. He's in a heavily Republican district, but one that is close to the Bay Area and whose demographics are changing. And Richard Pombo is one of the nastiest, sleaziest, most corrupt members of the House.

Pombo's also apparently good at denying reality:

SACRAMENTO - A new poll released Monday presents further proof that Rep. Richard Pombo, R-Tracy, is in a tight race with challenger Jerry McNerney.

Conducted by well-known Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, the survey of 413 likely voters done last week shows McNerney leading Pombo 48 percent to 46 percent; this is within the poll's margin of error, so the two are in a statistical dead heat.

Pombo spokesman Carl Fogliani dismissed the survey.

"They must be polling on Fantasy Island," Fogliani said. "We never release our polls, but that's way off. McNerney never gets out of the 30 (percent range) in our numbers."

But more than $425,000 in polling, mailers and phone banking by the National Republican Congressional Committee and the appearance of President Bush in Stockton today for a fundraising event suggests the race is closer than Fogliani says.

"If everything's hunky-dory, why would they bring Bush in here to raise money?" asked Barbara O'Connor, director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and Media at California State University, Sacramento. "It is not coincidental that President Bush is coming to campaign for Pombo" and Rep. John Doolittle, R-Rocklin.

Privately, Pombo must be freaking out. McNerney is a great candidate with tons of grassroots support. There are two Democratic challengers running great races in California against entrenched Republican incumbents; McNerney against Pombo, and Charlie Brown against John Doolittle. Given the disintegration of the national GOP, these two have an extremely good chance in the most gerrymandered state in the nation.