Indiana: Early Warning System

If you want to know how the race for Congress is going, but don't want to hang in all night, all you have to do is huddle around a TV or radio at around 7:00pm Eastern time (4 on the West Coast). How these three races go in Indiana will be a bellweather for the nation.

The (Rep. Chris) Chocola- (Joe) Donnelly rematch here in north-central Indiana is one of the three races in the state in which the GOP incumbent is in danger of being defeated. To the west, six-term Rep. John N. Hostettler is fighting uphill against Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth and, to the south, freshman Rep. Michael E. Sodrel is facing for the third time the man he beat two years ago, former representative Baron Hill.

Here in Indiana, having so many nail-biters at the same time is a novelty and, as a result, everything about them is markedly more intense, especially the ground game.

If they all break Democrat it's going to be a wave election. If two of them fall, the Democrats will likely take the House but not by a huge margin. One win out of three here and it could be a long night. IN-09 is the real bellweather, between Mike Sodrel and Baron Hill.

For the life of me, I don't understand why the Democrats offered nobody in resistance to Sen. Richard Lugar, for no other reason than to raise Democratic turnout. Then again, maybe no Lugar supporter will bother to make much of an effort in an unopposed race.