'08 Matters

In what will probably become a regular feature, here's a roundup of Presidential matters that caught my eye:

• I'm going to go ahead and say that this is probably a bad way to try and win the Democratic nomination:

Biden told the crowd he needs the GOP and its supporters to put Nov. 7 behind them. "America needs -- I need -- the Republican Party to get back up," he said. "Not a single change in direction can be done without a bipartisan consensus in this country."

Biden knew it was a Republican audience, but said he wasn't surprised people lingered and listened.

"I don't find a lot of difference between Republicans and Democrats right now," Biden said.

Been there, done that. I don't totally disagree about the need for bipartisan consensus but there's a LOT of difference between the parties right now. Biden's aping Ralph Nader's old argument, for crying out loud. The last six years have shown that to be foolish.

• Usually the "I have an illegal Guatemalan gardener" story doesn't leak out so early. But somebody must have it in for Mitt Romney. I get the feeling that the only thing John McCain learned from his 2000 bid for the Presidency is that he needs to be more ruthless and start more whisper campaigns. Heck, McCain already stepped on Romney's shot to address the Republican Governor's Association alone. He's acting like Romney's the only other person in the race.

• I agree, Obama's going for it, and this article spells out his steps to the White House (the big thing for me: actually do something in the Senate; carve out a real legislative agenda, a tall order to do in one year). To be sure, everybody's afraid of him:

Said Iowa Democratic Chair Rob Tully: "(Hillary's) been quiet and, you know, there's a question that we all hear is that she may not get in this if Barack Obama gets in. I have never seen a reaction other than Bill Clinton in terms of the excitement that people have to meet Barack Obama. Some people just wanted to touch him."

• Speaking of Hillary, Chuck Todd at the Hotline becomes the first political prognosticator to notice that Hillary's going to have a hell of a time getting nominated. By and large, his analysis is pretty correct, mainly that core activists are not passionate about her, though the money men are. I also agree with this:

President Bush: Welcome to what I believe is the single biggest problem for Clinton. It's Bush, America's second "legacy" president. It's not that any Democratic voter will believe she will be like the younger Bush as president -- it's that Democrats may want to break the cycle of Bush, Clinton, Bush and Clinton. It's possible voters got the "change" bug out of their system in '06, but if not, the fatigue of the same people in charge for a 20-year period (or basically, a generation) is going to be a problem. Clinton's far from being an outsider. Also, don't underestimate the polarization fatigue. No matter who started it, the twin-wing hatred of the Bushes on the left and the Clintons on the right may be exhausting the political system. Perhaps that "Rodham" name can be of use after all...

This probably isn't fair to Hillary but it's absolutely spot-on. This isn't a monarchy where family dynasties get picked over and over again. I think people will end up having a real resistance to this. It's why Jeb isn't getting in; otherwise he'd be about as formidable as you can get (popular governor in a swing state).

• I still say that the 800-pound gorilla in this race is Al Gore. It's no surprise that both Gore and Obama landed on The Tonight Show this week. And Gore was funny:

Former Vice President Al Gore took a swipe at Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia on Wednesday, referencing the conservative jurist's recent skepticism in a global warming case and role in the 2000 presidential election.

"In the arguments, Justice Scalia said, 'I'm not a scientist, I don't want to deal with global warming.' I just wish he felt that way about presidential elections," Gore joked on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno."

Responding to the audience's cheer, he quipped: "I think 51 percent of the audience clapped for it."

Gore could wait until about September of this year, make a big splash and suck up all the oxygen in the race. Or he could announce when he receives the Academy Award for Best Documentary for An Inconvenient Truth (which is likely).

• Longshot Tom Vilsack said the right thing about Iraq today.

Vilsack, who announced his candidacy for the White House on Thursday, questioned McCain's proposal to send another 20,000 combat troops to Iraq to quell the insurgency. The Arizona senator, considered the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination, has stood alone in calling for additional troops.

"I fundamentally disagree with Senator McCain on this. I think he is wrong. We cannot afford to make a big mistake bigger," the Iowa governor said to a burst of applause at the New Hampshire Technical Institute.

"We've stretched our military too thin and I'm not quite sure where Senator McCain thinks we can get these troops," said Vilsack, who made similar comments during a radio interview [...]

"We've created a culture of dependency in which the Iraqis are essentially using America either as an excuse or a reason not to confront the problem.... No matter how long we are there, no matter what we do, eventually they have to decide for themselves, do they want safety and security and stability or not?"

But Vilsack said he would maintain some troops in the northern part of the country to allow for a quick response if the stability of the Mideast is at stake.

You get points for being right on what will be the defining issue of the '08 election, barring a miracle. And Vilsack doesn't have any baggage of a vote for war.