African War Over, Or Just Beginning?

Ethiopian troops moved into the Somali capital without a fight yesterday, as the Islamists just melted away. There was a sense of relief but also vast concern for the future.

Despite the celebrations in the streets, worries about the future were widespread in a country that hasn't had an effective national government since clan warlords toppled a longtime dictator 15 years ago.

Many in overwhelmingly Muslim Somalia are suspicious of the transitional government's reliance on neighboring Ethiopia, a traditional rival with a large Christian population and one of East Africa's biggest armies. Witnesses said crowds threw rocks at Ethiopians troops on the city's northern edge.

Somalia's complex clan politics also are a big worry, having undone at least 14 attempts to install a central government in this violent, anarchic nation.

Gedi's government, set up in 2004 with U.N. backing, is riddled with clan rivalries, most notably between the young prime minister and elderly president.

"The future of Somalia is very bleak and Somalis will share the same fate with Iraq and Afghanistan," a Mogadishu resident, Abdullahi Mohamed Laki, told The Associated Press. "The transitional government has no broad support in the capital."

Gedi later said his government was seeking approval from the interim parliament to impose martial law across Somalia while its forces attempt to restore order. Weapons will be confiscated, he said without giving details.

A chilling reminder of the chaos Somalia has known came as clan militiamen and criminal groups began looting almost anything they could after the Islamic forces fled. At least four people were killed in the melee, said one witness, Abdullahi Adow.

The Prime Minister of Ethiopia has vowed not to leave Somalia until it hunted down the Islamists lest they regroup. It remains to be seen whether the lines are that clean, and whether the Islamists will be able to be separated from the general population. The head of the Somali government reached Mogadishu today, and proposed three months of martial law to stop the lawlessness. But his power is eclipsed by that of the rival warlords who, now that their main enemy has been deposed, will fight for control of the capital. This won't bring much hope to the Somali people. And the hatred of Ethiopians, increasingly the face of the transitional government, goes back centuries.

The Islamists brought excessive law and order to the capital; their defeat will bring anarchy. There is nowhere on Earth in need of nation-building help more than Somalia. Of course, this will not come to the attention of the United States. The war was a choice between two unpalatable options. One is nearly defeated (the Islamists apparently are herding into Kismayo for a last stand); the other is creeping out of their shelter to wreak havoc on an already suffering people. The Guardian UK lists some possible outcomes:

1. The Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which is weak and largely unpopular, comes to a power-sharing agreement with the powerful Hawiye clan in Mogadishu and installs a functioning administration in the capital. Ethiopian forces withdraw. By negotiating with clans in Somalia's other important cities, the TFG begins to exert some form of central authority, putting the country on the path to normality.

2. Ethiopia withdraws its troops and the TFG is unable to exert any real authority beyond its base of Baidoa. In the vacuum created by the Islamists' departure, power reverts to clan-based warlords who have held sway in Somalia for the past 16 years. The anarchic situation that existed before the Somali Council of Islamic Courts (SCIC) rose to power in Mogadishu returns.

3. The remnants of the SCIC, in particular the militant Shabaab wing, regroup to wage guerrilla war against the government - and the Ethiopians, if they stay. Eritrea and other Arab states continue to sponsor the Islamists. Somalia becomes a magnet for foreign militants keen to help local fighters establish an Islamic state.

Let's hope for #1, and let's hope the international community does whatever they can to see that through.