Danger in Africa

I thought those of you who might not be paying attention to events in the Horn of Africa might like to know that we're on the brink of regional war over there.

Racked by clan rivalry, disorder and violence, the failed state of Somalia is now lurching towards a war that could suck in several of its neighbours, the UN warned today.

The organisation's top official for the country urged the international community to do everything possible to prevent conflict and help the 1.8 million people there who were in dire need of help.

"Since the 1990s, we have never been so close to war, and this has the possible impact of spreading all across the Horn of Africa," Mr Laroche said.

The prime minister, Ali Mohamed Gedi, has warned that Islamist forces backed by 4,000 foreign fighters are moving into position for a possible attack on the interim government's base.

Mr Gedi's government is one in name only: the western-backed administration controls just the western town of Baidoa, near the Ethiopian border. Opposing the weak and divided government is the Somalia Islamic Courts Council (SICC).

The Islamic Courts is a more complicated body than simply "they're Islamic, let's get them!" They may have a jihadist element, but they've also restored a lot of order to the country. They may have moderates involved, but they also have hardliners who talk of "greater Somalia" and want to take over parts of Ethiopia and Kenya. Eritrea would fight on the side of the Islamists, while Ethiopia has vowed to protect the nominal government.

This is really bad stuff and The Guardian appears to be the only news outlet that cares. The Islamic Courts may at least be indifferent to terrorists taking harbor in a country controlled by them. It's hard to say, but the point is that we're currently so overstretched in Iraq that we're in no position to deal with other developing threats in the world. Somalia is totally off the radar screen, and yet you could be looking at a 4- or 6-country war. And the African Union's major force is in Darfur and unable to deal with this as well.

Sometimes, you make the world more dangerous because of what you don't pay attention to, as well as what you do.