"Iran... is mentioned but is not a focus"

The long-awaited, probably-ready-before-the-election NIE on Iraq will officially be out on Friday morning, but the WaPo has talked to enough people who've seen it to give a preview. It's not a pretty picture (but you knew that).

A long-awaited National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, presented to President Bush by the intelligence community yesterday, outlines an increasingly perilous situation in which the United States has little control and there is a strong possibility of further deterioration, according to sources familiar with the document.

The report dances around whether or not Iraq is in civil war, and then says this...

But it couches glimmers of optimism in deep uncertainty about whether the Iraqi leaders will be able to transcend sectarian interests and fight against extremists, establish effective national institutions and end rampant corruption.

The document emphasizes that although al-Qaeda activities in Iraq remain a problem, they have been surpassed by Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence as the primary source of conflict and the most immediate threat to U.S. goals. Iran, which the administration has charged with supplying and directing Iraqi extremists, is mentioned but is not a focus.

Iran is NOT A FOCUS. The problem in Iraq is one of SECTARIAN VIOLENCE.

This NIE is the judgment of 16 of the nation's intelligence agencies, and they're all saying the exact opposite of the impression that the Cheney Administration gives in their public statements. For all the warmongering and belief that Iran is the scapegoat, the source of all the troubles in Iraq, this clear-eyed assessment won't fall for it. And there was more encouraging news on that front on Capitol Hill today:

"One of the sort of deeply held rumors around here is that the intelligence community gives an administration or a president what he wants by way of intelligence," Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) told Navy Vice Adm. John M. McConnell, Bush's nominee to be director of national intelligence, during McConnell's confirmation hearing yesterday.

Without directly accepting Feinstein's premise, McConnell replied that the intelligence community had learned "meaningful" lessons over the past several years and that "there's very intense focus on independence." McConnell and others made clear that the new NIE on Iraq had been subjected to extensive competitive analysis to test its conclusions.

I'm inclined to believe that. The CIA could get rolled when the Cheney Administration was riding high. But they were brutally damaged by the fallout over Iraq, and they can no longer afford to stovepipe intelligence. They should only have loyalty to the facts, not a political party or anyone in the executive branch. And they're being sure to do something unprecedented in intelligence reports in this era of certitude: they're dissenting, right in the document.

One senior congressional aide said the NIE had been described to him as "unpleasant but very detailed." A source familiar with its language said it contained several dissents that are prominently displayed so that policymakers understand any disagreements within the intelligence community -- a significant change from the 2002 document, which listed most key dissents in small-type footnotes.

Given all of this background, I'd have to say that this NIE is probably very strong in its findings. Of course, expect the White House to cherry-pick the one or two bits of good news to highlight; it's what they always do. But let's make no mistake about this: IRAN IS NOT A FACTOR in what's going on in Iraq. Repeat that over and over again like a mantra. Put it in your letters to the editor. Report it to your Congresscritters. Use it in your debates. Make sure the whole world knows it before we find ourselves in another war.

UPDATE: According to Spencer Ackerman, they are trying to keep this NIE classified, so the public won't get a chance to read what a mess we're in. Dianne Feinstein is leading the fight, believe it or not, to declassify. Must be that call I made to her office today. :) ... we need to make sure this report is made public.