The Race to 60

TPM Election Central is doing a Senate whip count to see how many Republicans will break ranks and vote to move forward on Harry Reid's anti-escalation resolution which has the exact same language as the one the House will vote on later today.

So far he's got four Republicans voting with the majority: Snowe, Collins, Smith and Warner. Norm Coleman voted with the Democrats the last time around, so you have to expect him to do the same. So that's five.

Reid will probably need 11 GOP Senators to get this done, unless Joe Lieberman returns to his senses or Tim Johnson comes forward in a wheelchair to cast the deciding vote (I think I just want that to happen because that's how it would go in the movie). As a profile in courage, John McCain will skip the vote to go out campaigning. Any Democrat who does the same will lose a lot of respect.

Adding another piece of piping to the kitchen sink strategy, Joe Biden wants to de-authorize the IWR:

The best next step is to revisit the authorization Congress granted the President in 2002 to use force in Iraq. That's exactly what I'm doing.

We gave the President that power to destroy Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and, if necessary, to depose Saddam Hussein.

The WMD were not there. Saddam Hussein is no longer there. The 2002 authorization is no longer relevant to the situation in Iraq.

I am working on legislation to repeal that authorization and replace it with a much narrower mission statement for our troops in Iraq.

Congress should make clear what the mission of our troops is: to responsibly draw down, while continuing to combat terrorists, train Iraqis and respond to emergencies. We should make equally clear what their mission is not: to stay in Iraq indefinitely and get mired in a savage civil war.

Coupled with the Biden-Gelb plan, I believe this is the most effective way to start bringing our troops home without leaving a mess behind.

For once, the inherent scattershot nature of the Democrats, with each member freelancing on their own, is an asset. The Administration position is under siege from all sides. And they're cracking under the pressure, with Tony Snow saying things like "I'm not sure anything went wrong" in Iraq after a pre-war slide showed that the military expected under 5,000 troops in country by now.

This is getting interesting.

UPDATE: House resolution passes 246-182 with 7 not voting. 17 Republicans crossed the line to vote for it (I knew it wouldn't be 60 for the authoritarian party. They're content to follow their President into a ditch). 2 Democrats voted against it, Jim Marshall of Georgia and Gene Taylor of Mississippi.