Next War Update

This Iranian capture of 15 British soldiers is almost more troubling than if they were American soldiers, if your goal is to avoid war, because this could drag England kicking and screaming into a conflict as well. I think that the Brits were probably in Iranian waters, and I don't think this is a made-up Gulf of Tonkin-like event; the Iranians have every much a reason to be belligerent as the West at this point. They need leverage to continue their nuclear program or to get a favorable deal, and to rally flagging public support at home ("the infidels are attacking"!). In the end, I don't think Iran wants war but a pretext to prove their biases, and they are likely to seek a peaceful end here.

However, I do agree that it's worrisome, now that the British soldiers are being interrogated, that we have to hope that Tehran is not as cavalier about the Geneva Conventions as Washington has been all these years.

Justin Raimondo has a piece up about this situation as well. Excerpt:

It happened on the eve of a vote in the UN Security Council to impose stricter sanctions on Iran and in the wake of escalating rhetoric from U.S. government officials blaming Iran for anti-occupation activity in Iraq. On top of that, recent events include the kidnapping of Iranian consular officials in Irbil, Kurdistan, by U.S. forces, reports of covert U.S. support for terrorist attacks inside Iran, the "disappearance" of a major Iranian military figure in the elite Revolutionary Guards unit, and suspicions that the Mossad may have had a hand in killing a renowned Iranian nuclear scientist. Add it all up, and there seems little doubt as to who carried out what seems like a brazen provocation.

I agree, but it's just as provocative on Iran's side as it is the US side. Raimondo is skeptical, so read the whole thing.