Term Limits Gets A Boost, Maybe

Are people really easily swayed by whatever it says on the ballot? Most experts seem to think so, and certainly when the ballot question is put to people in polls differently, it changes the outcome. But I am not sure that this is so epochal. The campaign over this term limits extension (which is exactly what it is for people in office right now, while a reduction for later) hasn't even begun. And you can bet that there will be ads excoriated the perceived power grab, no matter what the ballot says. I don't think that you can give an election to one side or the other based on language. What we know about initiatives in the past couple elections is that the default position is no. And the "Yes" people now have a really odd argument to make. They have to say that term limits should be relaxed for the 128 lawmakers serving right now, but tightened for everybody else. They have to talk about the benefits of more experience and wisdom in the California legislature, while defending a proposition that, according to the ballot, will guarantee LESS experience in that body. It's a bit incoherent. And the opening for opponents of the measure is so wide you can drive a truck through it.

I'll go on record and say this is going to lose. But I'm sure a lot of money will be bet against that.