The Benchmark Bush Wants

So apparently Bush today echoed Mitch McConnell's statement that if the Iraqi government wanted us to leave, we would happily comply with their request. He has to say this, of course, if we wants to maintain a patina of credibility whenever he says that Iraq is a sovereign nation. But on another level, he's saying this as a direct threat to the Iraqi government to ensure that they pass the euphemistically named "hydrocarbon law" that recommends production sharing agreements (PSAs) to private oil companies for decades, essentially privatizing the lucrative Iraqi oil industry. Bush is playing a long game here, and the Democrats fell right into the trap (or they may be going into it willingly).

If you have read Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, the strategy at work by the US is familiar. The end goal is to secure the resources of the developing world for multinational corporations to exploit. They start with cajoling and promises of reconstruction aid. Then it goes to threatening. Then regime change.

The cajoling has been going on for months. This "hydrocarbon law" has been in the works for years. But Iraqi oil unions, along with Sunni and Kurdish lawmakers, have resisted the calls to pass it. As kavips pointed out, Dick Cheney visited Iraq recently for a reason. The message was to inform the Iraqi government that this law, which would enable US oil companies to reap 70% of the profits from the sale of any petroleum products, must pass, and soon.

So what's behind the Cheney visit? Why now?

Last week, the Kurds signed deals with both Norwegian and Turkish companies to develop new oil fields in their province. These were not at 70% PSA rates.

This electrified Cheney and his Iraqi leadership, which said that any contracts signed before the new law was passed, would be invalid and illegal.

Suddenly, in the aftermath of Cheney's visit, Iraq announced publicly that they are making preparations for when the Americans leave.

Iraq's military is drawing up plans to cope with any quick U.S. military pullout, the defense minister said Monday, as a senior American official warned that the Bush administration may reconsider its support if Iraqi leaders don't make major reforms by fall [...]

On Monday, Defense Minister Abdul-Qader al-Obeidi told reporters Iraq's military was drawing up plans in case U.S.-led forces left the country quickly.

"The army plans on the basis of a worst case scenario so as not to allow any security vacuum," al-Obeidi said. "There are meetings with political leaders on how we can deal with a sudden pullout."

That "senior American official" was almost certainly Dick Cheney. He clearly was there to tell the Iraqis "sign that law or we walk," and the Iraqis said "OK, we'll plan for life without you." The same day, Monday, the President called Prime Minister Maliki and stressed the need to pass that oil law.

A White House spokesman, Tony Fratto, said President Bush expressed confidence in al-Maliki during a telephone call Monday to the Iraqi leader.

He said the two talked about political progress in Iraq, and al-Maliki gave Bush updates on two key U.S. demands — legislation to share Iraq's oil wealth among its regions and ethnic groups and a reform of the constitution.

But two senior Iraqi officials told The Associated Press that Bush warned al-Maliki that Washington expected to see "tangible results quickly" on the oil bill and other legislation as the price for continued support.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't supposed to release the information [...]

Senior Kurdish lawmaker Mahmoud Othman confirmed that U.S. pressure was mounting, especially on the oil bill, which was endorsed by the Iraqi Cabinet three months ago but has yet to come to the floor of parliament.

"The Americans are pressuring us to accept the oil law. Their pressure is very strong. They want to show Congress that they have done something so they want the law to be adopted this month. This interference is negative and will have consequences," Othman told AP.

The Bush Administration was running into serious resistance with getting the most important part of their agenda in Iraq passed. So they needed another piece of leverage. All of a sudden, Bush says he'll accept benchmarks, the same benchmarks he derided just a week earlier. The Democratic leadership saw an opening where they could state that Bush compromised (he didn't), so they signed the deal.

So how is the el foldo supplemental structured? It includes these benchmarks that the Iraqis must follow or risk the loss of reconstruction funding, although there's a waiver that Bush can sign to send the funding anyway. People rightly consider these to be toothless benchmarks. But one of the benchmarks, the most important one actually, is about the Iraqi oil law. Bush will MOST CERTAINLY withhold funding for the Iraqis unless they sign this misbegotten law that privatizes their oil industry. And the Dems went right along with it in the interest of "holding Bush accountable." We've given him the very tools to rape the country of Iraq of their natural resources.

"Reconstruction money" can mean a lot of things. Would you at all be surprised if a misplaced Air Force bomb accidentally hit an oil supply line? Would "reconstruction money" be construed as bullets for the Iraqi army? Electricity for the houses of the Iraqi Parliament? Security? At the same time as Democrats gave up the power of the purse to stop the occupation, they handed the power of the purse to Bush over Iraq, and now he can turn it on and off like a spigot if the Parliament doesn't do his bidding. And it would all be completely legal.

This is serious Economic Hit Man stuff. They threatened to leave the country if there was no oil law, the Iraqis didn't blink. So they're trying the economic leverage. And if that doesn't work, Maliki's a goner. They blew up Torrijos in Panama. Same with Roldos in Ecaudor. It was over the same kind of things. I believe the Iraqis may hold firm, until they have to deal with Iyad Allawi back in power, and they understand the consequences of being anything but an American puppet.

The only person talking about any of this, friends, is Congressman Dennis Kucinich, who spent an hour on the House floor talking about this Iraqi oil law, very little of which mentions wealth-sharing, and most of which details how the industry would be privatized and how the oil companies, who have bled Americans dry to the tune of 20 billion dollars this year alone. It is completely infuriating that the Congress gave Bush the ability to use reconstruction money as a club over the head of the Iraqi government, in the name of calling it a "check" on Bush's power.