Immigration Deal

There's a live press conference going on right now on a bipartisan deal on immigration reform. John McCain won't be speaking, but he's in the background, and I've never seen someone look so uncomfortable. You'd think that he'd step out of camera range. This may be the end of his nomination run, because anyone stepping forward and saying that we should take 12 million people out of the shadows and begin to deal with them in a comprehensive way for them to earn legalization will be a persona non grata in the "hate-the-brown" GOP.

Here are some details of the plan:

The key breakthrough came when negotiators struck a bargain on a so-called "point system" that would for the first time prioritize immigrants' education and skill-level over family connections in deciding how to award green cards.

The proposed agreement would allow illegal immigrants to come forward and obtain a "Z visa" and — after paying fees and a $5,000 fine and returning to their home countries — ultimately get on track for permanent residency, which could take between eight and 13 years.

They could come forward right away to claim a probationary card that would let them live and work legally in the U.S., but could not begin the path to permanent residency or citizenship until border security improvements and a high-tech worker identification program were completed.

A new temporary guest worker program would also have to wait until those so-called "triggers" had been activated.

I would think that the President will push extremely hard for this, in an effort to cement some kind of legacy and mount a comeback - which is not going to happen, but that will be the working theory. In truth this will probably hurt Bush among conservatives and send his poll numbers lower. As for the plan itself, well, they're trying to split the atom with this thing. Ultimately, enforcing the workplace would work in two seconds, but there's this fiction that immigrants do the jobs Americans won't do. Not true - they do the jobs Americans won't do AT THAT PRICE. And my real concern is how many protections those immigrants and citizens-in-waiting would be entitled to in those 8 to 13 years. Would they be eligible for the minimum wage? Would they get Social Security?

I don't think a lot of immigrants have $5,000 to pay in fines, so I don't know how this is much more than a feel-good measure. I believe in a comprehensive solution, but there will still be a multi-tiered economy under this system, unless workplace enforcement is made more stringent.

UPDATE: Incidentally, the right is going batshit crazy over this. They're calling it a "GOP cave". Their thoughts on this issue make them appear to be living in one.