The Next War in Iraq

We have enough trouble securing Baghdad and fighting violence throughout the country, but there's increasingly looking like there will be a shooting war in Kurdistan.

Turkey's top general said Thursday his army — which has been massing troops on the border with Iraq — was prepared to attack separatist Kurdish guerrillas in a cross-border offensive.

Gen. Yasar Buyukanit said the military was ready and awaiting government orders for an incursion, putting pressure on the government to support an offensive that risks straining ties with the United States and Europe and raising tensions with Iraqi Kurds.

"As soldiers, we are ready," Buyukanit said at an international security conference in Istanbul.

Indeed, seven Turkish soldiers were killed in a rebel attack yesterday. Turkey is calling the rebel attacks from the Kurdish guerrillas acts of terrorism (by the way, this is the danger of using "war on terror" as a shibboleth to justify any action). In fact, The US has called the PKK (Kurdish separatist group) a terrorist organization. But clearly, Turkish incursion across the border would be a terrible outcome. The only functioning economy in the whole country would be shut down. And if the US and the EU work to stop Turkey, they will get the "soft on terror" label thrown right back at them.

Although the Turkish government promised to back the military, it has not so far asked Parliament for permission to deploy troops, anticipating problems with Washington, Iraq and the European Union — all of which have urged Turkey to show restraint and find diplomatic ways to deal with the Kurdish rebellion.

Turkey frequently complains that the United States and Iraqi Kurds have done little to stop the separatist rebels.

On Thursday, Buyukanit denounced what he said was a lack of assistance from allies.

"Turkey does not receive the necessary support in its fight against terrorism," the general said. "There are countries which directly or indirectly support PKK terrorism." He did not identify those countries.

This would be a major blow to stability in the region, and it's another example of how Iraq is a Chinese box that is nearly impossible to escape.