Population Shifts and Central Valley Politics

Let's face it. Politics in California in general are heavily tilted to the large population centers in the Bay Area and Southern California (including Orange County and down to San Diego). But to continue in this fashion would be shortsighted, because it's clear that the population patterns are moving away from two all-powerful hubs and toward a more widely spread pattern. What has been getting most of the ink from the recent study by the state Department of Finance is that the Inland Empire will soon become home to the second-largest county (Riverside) in all of California. But what has been less remarked upon is the expansion of the Central Valley:

With a new state forecast predicting that California's population growth will tilt ever more toward the Central Valley, Southern California's Inland Empire and fast-growing areas around Sacramento, experts say the state's political center of gravity may shift, too - away from the more urbanized, coastal metropolitan areas that dominate the state's political and economic life today.

The Central Valley "will clearly gain heft compared with the other metropolitan regions," said Carol Whiteside, president of the Great Valley Center and the former mayor of Modesto. "It won't be the baby cousin any more."

The Central Valley will grow from 10 percent of the state's population in 2000, to 16 percent of all Californians by 2050. The Bay Area is projected to gain about 3.5 million new residents by 2050, but its share of California's population will drop to 17 percent, from 20 percent in 2000, an analysis of new state Department of Finance projections shows.

This is something important for political groups to internalize. The traditional structure of Democratic election efforts has been to raise turnout in LA and SF, and hope to do half-decent everywhere else, and walk away a winner. That's not going to work as we go forward. With 1 in 6 Californians living in places like Modesto and Fresno and Stockton and Bakersfield and Merced and the numerous towns throughout the San Joaquin Valley, Democrats must build and grow their presence outside of the urban metropolises, to a level where they were in the recent past before giving up practically all of that ground to the Republicans.

Here's the spread of population in 2000:

Coastal Southern California: 47%
Bay Area: 20%
Central Valley: 10%
Inland Empire: 10%
Other (High Desert, Sierras): 13%

Here's the projections for 2050:

Coastal Southern California: 39%
Bay Area: 17%
Central Valley: 16%
Inland Empire: 14% (3x the size in 50 years!)
Other (High Desert, Sierras): 14%

The "big 2" go from 67% of the population to 56%. That's significant in a statewide election. It will also likely affect reapportionment, with the Bay Area potentially losing seats in Congress or the state legislature as early as the 2010 Census.

We have to start thinking about this and planning now. What are the concerns of the Central Valley? Obviously agriculture and water concerns would weigh heavily, one would think, but the Valley is also urbanizing and developing rapidly. These aren't all cow towns anymore; there are at least 5 cities with over 100,000 inhabitants. The San Joaquin Valley is also the primary oil-producing region in our state. Culturally this is likely to be a more classically Western libertarian area.

We have a 3-2 deficit among the Congressional delegation in this area. Dennis Cardoza and Jim Costa are Democrats, and George Radanovich, Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes are Republicans. By 2050 there could be up to 10 seats in this region. Are Cardoza and Costa helping grow the Democratic brand in the Central Valley? Are they promoting policies that can help Democrats win? This is a diverse area as well, with not just Hispanics but lots of Asian and European communities. How are they being served?

I hope people are asking these questions. The Central Valley could hold the key to continued Democratic dominance in California.