Most Dangerous Trouble Spot In The World Update

Pervez Musharraf pulled out of today's loya jirga in Afghanistan today, a meeting he was to have held with Hamid Karzai. From what I'm reading this appears to be for security reasons, and not the story the LA Times is trying to weave that Obama's comments about surgical strikes are backfiring. But clearly there are internal politics in Pakistan that we in the United States are only beginning to understand. We also have learned that Musharraf is about to declare a state of emergency which may enable him to continue to control the government while head of the military.

This is a bad situation. Musharraf has been emboldened, not by Obama, but by an appeasement policy that the Bush Administration has delivered. So long as he says he's an ally, without doing much, he can commit himself to whatever power grab he chooses. This has led us down the path where we are now, with a dictator in power and Islamists in the mountains. In truth, the Pakistani people are more moderate, and Benzanir Bhutto is very popular here. If we should be pushing for anything, it should be free elections and the democratic reform movement. Musharraf doesn't have the ability to crush dissent the way Iran does. He's already tried to do so by removing that Supreme Court judge, and the whole country rioted. So transitioning from a unitary executive who makes all the decisions for Pakistan to a democratic movement where popular support can drive change should be the major goal. The problem is that the Bush Administration only seeks that as a goal for countries they hate; they don't care about democracy in countries they can do business with.

The lesson is not to support tyrants, which puts you inevitably in this position. Especially tyrants with nukes.