Slouching Towards Announcement

First, a bit of business: Thank ye kindly, D-day, for allowing me to play a set or two on the main stage.

Frederick of Hollywood ambles and shambles his way toward Labor Day, after which he will (apparently) officially announce his bid for the Republican nomination. He seems sanguine that his late entry won't hurt him. But, ahem:

"A lot of people say it's late and all that, but I look at my history books and see where people announced in September, October, November," said the former Tennessee senator, who did not seem concerned that making his candidacy official sometime after Labor Day, as he is expected to do, might be late in the game.

Not exactly a reliable historical analysis. Name the (a) modern race that (b) featured such a crowded field and (c) occurred within a primary calendar by which a winner will almost certainly be known by the close of February 5.

No? None come to mind?

Campaigns have enough challenges setting up ground operations in the states deemed by each to be richest in opportunity. It's a massive strategic undertaking, weighing the cost vs. benefits of deploying funds and the candidate's time to New Hampshire or South Carolina or Nevada. It can seem daunting to track the vast array of ever-changing if/then scenarios fueled by regular announcements of new state primary dates, and candidates' shifting poll numbers in each state. But get past the flurry of activity and some verities remain. For example, snapping up local campaign talent can be a zero-sum game.

And time is a limited resource. (Rocket science, I know.)

And here's more evidence of Thompson's fundamental misunderstanding of how the process works:

“Here you are earlier than a normal candidacy's declared with all the means of communications we have these days – the internet to the earned media to all the cable networks — to get your message out. And still people say it’s got to be earlier instead of later.”

Fred, Fred, Fred... the reason people say you have to go earlier than September (for races in a dozen states that begin in January - possibly December) is that you have to actually spend time in each state your campaign chooses as its focus.

Let's take a gander at the primary calendar:

Jan. 14 - Iowa
Jan. 19 - Nevada
Jan. 22 - New Hampshire, Wyoming (R only)
Jan. 29 - Florida

Feb. 2 - South Carolina (R only)
Feb. 5 - Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Utah

By my rough count, there are 95 days between Labor Day and mid-December. Just how many days is Thompson planning to spend in each state he wants to run a real campaign in? And how many days will his competitors have collectively clocked in same? Thompson will be working against great odds in attempting to beat back the ground campaigns of his competitors, who have been tilling the soil now for months.

Earned media won't help Thompson overcome these structural disadvantages - especially not in places like New Hampshire and Iowa, where locals don't look too kindly upon those who won't deign to actually campaign for their votes the old fashioned way. And while Mitt Romney can effectively double his time investment by sending wife Ann out by herself to campaign for him, I doubt Jeri could be that sort of asset on the campaign trail.

It's hard not to conclude from the evidence of his actions that Thompson is living in a delusional, fact-free universe.

I could be wrong...

"I wasn't there when they made those rules, so I'm not abiding by them," he said.

Nope.

What's so great about the reality-based community, anyway?


Postscript: when did Thompson start looking so old?



Smell the Aqua Velva? More like Old Man Smell.


[cross-posted at Vernon Lee]