Don't Sleep On Ron Paul

I didn't see the Republican debate last night, but from press reports and liveblogs I got a sense of it: they all want to kill the terrists, cut taxes, and make nervous jokes about Fred Thompson to mask their fear. But there seems to be one thing that a lot of people are missing. Yes, Mike Huckabee got to defend the honor of Republicans while condemning the war, which is likely to play well, and certainly was more brave than Mitt Romney, who called the war a mess in a town hall meeting and last night declared the escalation to be "apparently working."

But Ron Paul is TAILOR MADE for a state like New Hampshire, whose motto should actually be "Get Off My Lawn" as much as "Live Free Or Die." This is why he actually got the biggest cheers of the night no matter what the newspapers reported. It's a state full of cranks and "principled tax evaders" like the couple that's been holed up in their compound for months, a couple that Paul may or may not have compared to Gandhi. It's a state that has turned sharply against the Iraq debacle, a state which has always been moderate enough on social issues to boo proposals to ban gay marriage like they did last night, and a state whose independent voters can participate in either the Democratic or Republican primary. Things like this happen in New Hampshire.

Before Paul became an antiwar hero, his support consisted largely of libertarian activists--people like Michael Badnarik, the Libertarian Party's 2004 presidential nominee. Badnarik refuses to get a driver's license (even though, he conceded to me, "I have my car operational") and warns against anyone who might try to force a smallpox or anthrax vaccination on him. ("You bring the syringe, I'll bring my .45, and we'll see who makes a bigger hole.") Badnarik recounts rallying support for Paul at a recent conference of the Free State Project, a group of libertarians who have relocated to New Hampshire in the hope of concentrating their power and more or less taking over the state government. "I asked how many people would drive without a license and not pay income taxes, and three-quarters raised their hands," Badnarik recalls. "I'm choking up. I've got my heart in my throat. And I said, 'We need to do something--and Ron Paul's campaign is the shining star. We need to contribute the full two thousand dollars now. Tell all your friends.'"

In the first quarter of 2007, Paul raised more money in New Hampshire than McCain or Giuliani.

So Ron Paul will have a lot of support in the first-in-the-nation primary. And when I say a lot, I mean 10%, which is stratospheric for a fringe candidate who happens to be looney tunes. And that will completely change the complexion of that race. I don't think it'll die when he doesn't register in Iowa, either, because he'll have the money to compete in the Live Free or Die state. I don't know who will suffer from Paul's stand in New Hampshire, but it's an element of the Republican race that shouldn't be denied.