Hard To Be Pessimistic

I know that this is very early and polls at this point for elections in November 2008 are pretty meaningless. But there are a host of encouraging signs in the race for the US Senate.

Recent polling shows Democrats in an even better position in the Senate at this point in the 2008 cycle than they were at this point in the 2006 cycle. Here are just some examples:

Colorado: Schaffer internal poll, 8/29/07: Udall (D) 45%-40% Schaffer (R). And this is an internal poll for Schaffer.
Minnesota: Rasmussen, 9/06/07: Coleman (R-inc) 46%--41% Franken (D) / 42% Ciresi.(D)
New Hampshire: CNN / WMUR, 7/09/07: Shaheen 54%--38% Sununu (R-inc. Other Democrats are very close to Sununu-with the margin of error.
Virginia: Rasmussen, 9/05/07: Warner (D) 54%--34% Gilmore (R)
For the sake of comparison, here are the first polls I could find from each of the Senate pickups Democrats made in 2006 (from the subscriber section of Polling Report):

Missouri: Research 2000, 1/18/2006: McCaskill (D) 47%--44% Talent (R-inc)
Montana: Mason-Dixon, 12/15/05: Burns (R, inc) 49%--35% Tester (D)
Ohio: Columbus Dispatch, 11/03/05: Brown (D) 35%--31% DeWine (R-inc) (note: the final poll from this organization, four days before the election, showed Brown ahead by 26 points, even though he only won by 12%. This poll is conducted by mail)
Pennsylvania: Several polls showing Casey (D) up by double-digits over Santorum (R-inc)
Rhode Island: Brown University, 9/11/05: Chafee (R-inc) 38%--25% Whitehouse (D)

We'll know by the end of the month if Mark Warner will indeed jump into the 2008 race in Virginia, and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire (though I think anyone can beat Sununu, and Jay Buckey is a better choice in my view). If they do enter the race as expected, that's three states with Democrats comfortably in front, as opposed to one in 2006. And there are a number of other places on the board in play. Nebraska will be an open seat with Chuck Hagel's retirement, and if Bob Kerrey gets into the race Democrats may be favored there. And then there's Maine, with Tom Allen going up against Susan Collins. And Minnesota. And an open seat in Idaho. And Alaska with corrupt incumbent Ted Stevens. These races usually tighten with the incumbent weakening as time goes on, not the opposite.

The Senate GOP is already managing expectations.

Anonymous GOP Operative:
"About the only safe Republican Senate seats in '08 are the ones that aren't on the ballot," a GOP operative with extensive experience in Senate races said. "I don't see even the rosiest scenario where we don't end up losing more seats." [Washington Post, 9/2/07]

Unnamed Republican Senators:
"Republican Senators are now talking about losing four seats in 2008." [Evans-Novak Political Report, 8/29/07]

It is shaping up like Republican leadership expects a four-seat net loss to be the best-case scenario. I expect we'll see more commentary from Republicans along these lines as the races further develop.

55 seats would represent the outer edge of what Republicans had during the Gingrich Revolution. That's not only possible, with some luck a filibuster-proof 60 is within reach, certainly by 2010 (when more Republicans are up than Democrats once again).