The Remarkable Fluidity of the GOP Race

I'm not much of a believer in national polls, but clearly Rudy Giuliani's stock is dropping measurably. I'm not sure if it's tied to specific policies, although I'd like to think that, any more than it's tied to the introduction of a fresh candidate that conservatives who are holding out for a hero can now fill with their fantasies of a "real conservative." They've yet to hear the truth on Freddie, but he looks good at 30,000 feet. And that's how national polls are conducted.

Clearly Rudy is not selling the argument that he's the only one in the race who understands the nature of the terrorist threat; one poll shows that he has no advantage on his rivals on the terrorism front. Given that, and the fact that his views on many other topics are completely out of step with the conservative base, I don't see how he can turn it around.

But there isn't a flawless candidate to be found, which is why Newt Gingrich is still rumbling that he might join the race. In fact, there's an argument to be made that the GOP convention can be brokered. Mitt Romney is still leading in Iowa and New Hampshire, albeit by smaller numbers. He's a hardworking candidate and is trying to use the Iowa bounce to the nomination. But his numbers haven't moved an inch in South Carolina, or indeed much of the South, where Thompson runs strong. And in delegate-rich states like California and New York, Giuliani's support hasn't softened. So you can envision a scenario where Romney's bounce isn't quite high enough, Thompson sweeps the South, and Giuliani gets a lot of delegates in large states. Plus John McCain and Mike Huckabee are still lurking back in the pack, and in the non winner-take-all states they'll grab at least some delegates. And I stand by the opinion that Ron Paul will throw a wrench into the New Hampshire race by taking at least 10-15% of the vote.

That's a lot of muddle. And for a party that almost always nominates whoever is at the head of the polls on Labor Day the year before, it's quite astonishing.