The Third-Party Question

Everybody's trying to read tea leaves, wondering if there would be an evangelical third-party run if the nominally pro-choice Rudy Giuliani were to take the Republican nomination. The latest signals are conflicting. Sam Brownback, whose support is so wide and deep that he just dropped out of the race in the middle of October, proclaimed himself much more confortable with Giuliani's views on abortion and particularly the appointing of "strict constructionist judges," which is code. The backlash from various sources suggests that Brownback's view is kind of unpopular, which is obvious, considering he's no longer in the race.

"There's obviously something more going on here than fidelity to the pro-life cause," said (Jim) Bopp, a legendary pro-life activist and lawyer who is an important voice for Romney because he vouches for his conservatism. "Brownback is angling for some personal political benefit by cozying up to Giuliani."

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"I'll believe he supports Giuliani when I see it," FRC veep (Charmaine) Yoest says. "For the pro-life movement as a whole, life is a deal-breaker. There would be no better way to demoralize the GOP base than to nominate Giuliani. It would be a disaster for the Republicans party."

Whether this is all talk, or presumptive of action, is the $64,000 question. I think at this point, it's clear that there would be a third-party effort against Giuliani. The real question is whether or not it will be sanctioned by the larger groups of social conservatives, or whether it will be just from the fringe. The latter is manageable; the Constitution Party runs a wacko candidate every year who gets a handful of meaningless votes. The former would really close Republican hopes in 2008. I don't think anyone can be confident about which way things will go.