Where We're At With The GOP

I'm extremely sympathetic to Kevin Drum's take on The Right's Field.

The Christian Right seems to be gearing up for a full-scale war against Rudy Giuliani, and it's hard to believe he can win the nomination in the face of this onslaught. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, still has his whole Mormon problem, and it doesn't seem to be going away. Meanwhile, John McCain is launguishing in nowheresville, Fred Thompson is impressing no one (and he's already been blackballed by James Dobson anyway), and no one else is a serious contender. It's really hard to see how anyone wins this thing.

In fact, even though I guess I don't really believe this, it sure seems as the Republican Party is heading for a brokered convention this year. A battered, bloody, and bruised brokered convention. It's the prediction that never comes true, but who knows? Maybe dark horse Mike Huckabee will win on the 27th ballot?

Let's fill in the blanks here. The hard-core theocrats are making it a solemn vow to deny Giuliani the nomination.

It will be a powerful warning to those in a position of influence that, if the GOP turns against unborn children, a significant portion of its base will not vote for Republican candidates.

Nobody's been impressed by Freddie Thompson, despite the fact that he didn't drool on himself during the last debate will probably give him a boost.

I think I raised more money than John McCain last quarter.

And Mitt Romney wants to check with lawyers before determining whether to attack another country, an answer palatable to approximately no one (even though Rudy pretty much said the same thing only in a more lawyerly way).

So the scenario behind a brokered convention is this: Romney stays on top in Iowa and uses the bounce to win New Hampshire. But he can't make a dent in the South, where Thompson cleans up, presumably. And Giuliani comes in with the big states like New York and California and Florida. Only California is not winner-take-all but district-by-district, diluting that victory. And any primary that allows independents could be a boost for McCain or Paul. And McCain won Michigan last time, which is early. And I still think Paul in New Hampshire has the possibility of messing everything up.

I don't totally see it happening. But it's kind of out there as a possibility.