Whirlwind Health Care Plan About To Be Stopped By The State Senate?

Well, the swift justice that is Fabian Nuñez and the California State Assembly passed their health care bill in a flash today, just a couple days after reaching agreement on it with the Governor.

Don Perata is now asking the Legislative Analyst's Office to assess the impact on a health care overhaul on the state budget. While some have argued that this plan has its own funding source and will have no impact on the budget, Perata is obviously skeptical, and considering that so much of the budget does involve health and human services, the impact is far less clear than this assumption there's a wall between health care and all other state spending. Further, there's this quote:

“Nothing has changed in Sen. Perata’s position to not bring his caucus before the end of the year,” said Trost.

Which of course imperils the ability to bring the funding initiative before the voters in November.

I think Perata understands that Schwarzenegger has a time-honored tactic of gutting funding for various policies once new funding comes in through voter initiative or initial legislation. That is embodied in this quote:

"It's a very difficult conundrum for a member (of the Legislature) to have to explain that we're going to have to cut some jobs and (program) eligibility, but we'll have a real good deal in a couple of years," Perata said after a meeting in the governor's office.

What has torpedoed universal health care legislation in other states has been when costs outstrip the funding mechanism set up, forcing a dip into the general fund, which is unsustainable. Indeed, we know that the present budget crisis in the state shows little sign of letting up, as the mortgage mess worsens and the state slides into recession. I agree with George Skelton that the first priority has to be to stop the bleeding from an unsupportable revenue model for funding the state.

Our lawmakers could free all the inmates and shut down the prisons and that still wouldn't come close to balancing the budget. They'd also have to sever almost all state money to the University of California and state university system.

If they stopped providing Medi-Cal healthcare for poor people, including children, that wouldn't be enough.

Knock people off welfare? OK, if the state eliminated most welfare-type programs for poor people -- single moms with kids, the mentally ill, the aged, blind and disabled -- that would fill only two-thirds of the projected deficit hole [...]

Nobody in the Capitol except Republicans -- if you can believe them -- really thinks the budget can be honestly balanced without raising taxes. I especially don't accept that Schwarzenegger believes it. He just doesn't have any confidence in being able to talk skittish GOP lawmakers into voting for a tax hike. And some would need to in order to reach the necessary two-thirds majority vote.

It's long past time, however, to stop living in denial and demagoguing. If there's wasteful spending, chop it. But that won't balance the books. That much chopping wouldn't be politically feasible or publicly acceptable.

The governor and Legislature should -- but likely won't -- seize this opportunity to restructure the tax system, to make the revenue roller coaster less volatile in times of boom and bust.

And like it or not, a $14 billion dollar a year health care plan has an impact on that restructuring. I think it's clear what needs to be the priority. Sen. Perata is right. And you have to wonder whether Fabian Nuñez is more interested in legacy or extending his political career than the principles which brought him into public service in the first place.

UPDATE: The NYT has a story up about the Assembly passage here. This bit of duplicitous logic from the Governor always cracks me up.

Mr. Schwarzenegger has countered by saying there should be no linkage between the revenue measures needed to balance the budget and those needed to pay for the health insurance plan. He also argues that the health plan is intended to bring down costs by encouraging healthy habits, better management of chronic diseases, and electronic record-keeping. That, he says, should ultimately reduce the state’s health care expenses and help California fix its structural budget problems.

Apparently, you can't encourage healthy habits without a massive health care plan. Or engage in electronic record-keeping. See, without that individual madate you could never get junk food out of public schools!

That's just absurd. "Here's a bunch of stuff that would drive down health care costs no matter what the system. So pass my system so that we can implement all this stuff that'll drive down health care costs."

If you have to lie to sell your idea, it's probably not that good of an idea.