California Props All Going Down?

Propositions 93 and 94-97 face shaky polling in the final Field Poll. On Prop. 93, the term limits measure, 39% support and an identical 39% oppose, with 22% undecided. The support has decreased almost entirely because of Republicans. They used to favor Prop. 93, and as they've become more aware, they've switched to opposing it. Independents will be the crucial swing vote, and they too split evenly between favoring and opposing. Absentee voters are dead even, too, so neither side has a lot of votes banked.

What's really interesting is the question that says, "Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is advocating a yes vote on the term limits reform initiative (does/did) Governor Schwarzenegger's support of Prop. 93 make you more inclined to vote yes, less inclined to vote yes or (have/had) no effect on your vote?" 11% say it makes them more inclined, 9% says less, and a whopping 63% say it has no effect. Wow. I was hinting that Arnold wouldn't much matter on this legislative question but now we have some data.

On the tribal gaming agreements, Props. 94-97, 42% support and 37% oppose. When the question is just asked "Do you favor more or less slot machines at Indian casinos," 42% support and 43% oppose. So the agreements are in trouble, too.

I do think it's still a toss-up. Democrats and perhaps indies are going to get a lot of mail in favor of the measure. But the rule of thumb is that an initiative needs to be more out in front right now. Same with 94-97.