The Day After

This post about the polls by Matt Yglesias is pretty important. The pollsters actually got everything right beforehand except for Clinton's margin. They nailed Obama and Edwards' final number. And the exit polling was within the margin of error. So the pollsters didn't have that bad a night. They neglected to factor in this kind of turnout, and they didn't disclose how many undecideds waited until the last day to choose.

I've heard about the Bradley effect, with voters telling pollsters they'd vote for a black man in public but not doing so in the privacy of the voting booth, and I've heard about the misogyny effect in Iowa, where the men tell their wives who to stand with. (By the way, caucuses are a horrible way to choose a President. Just horrible.) Now that THAT'S out of everyone's system...

The truth is that we have a tie. It was a tie from the standpoint of delegates in New Hampshire. And contrary to popular belief, Iowa and New Hampshire DID have an impact. They winnowed the field down to two, which is what the media (successfully) attempted to do for the better part of a year. I'm in California and I'm supposed to be all thrilled that I "have my say," and yet both candidates I donated money to this year are not going to be viable by the time I vote. Why should I be happy about that? The primary system is still broken beyond repair, and I fear that now, people will somehow think it's humming along fine because of the unpredictability of the early races.

Obama secured the Culinary Workers union and the SEIU in Nevada, which is noteworthy. He has not had the kind of IE union support that Hillary has with AFSCME and the like. Remember, AFSCME dropped that mailer claiming Obama wouldn't keep abortion legal (the ugliest, most under-the-radar thing that happened in New Hampshire). So we go on to Nevada, a state where 1% turnout has been the norm for their caucuses. It will be much bigger on the Dem side this year, with so much at stake. But don't expect me to talk a lot about momentum anymore. This is clearly a tie, and one candidate's team will have to work harder than the other to win. In the end that's probably a good thing. And I hope against hope that issues will for once matter.

As for the Republican field, this is the line of the day:

4a) For the 15th consecutive month, it's impossible for any of the GOP candidates to win this nomination. I just hope this keeps up for 8 more months.