The Harbinger

One thing you have to take into account with this report is that Iowa and New Hampshire were two of the closest states back in 2004, and they figure to be swing states next year. And yet all the momentum is by and large with the Democrats.

*** The enthusiasm gap: Yesterday, we spent some time with the so-called second tier on the Dem side. The most striking thing: the crowd sizes. Biden and Richardson seem to get similar crowds as the GOP front-runners. It's a telling enthusiasm measuring stick that Biden can get Romney crowds. Also, the folks we talked to at Biden seem to be looking toward "experience" as their reason to support him. And consequently, it's hard to imagine that Biden folks would then decide to go with the least experienced front-runner, right? As for Richardson, his supporters seem to be into change more than experience. These anecdotes, of course, could be meaningless but we pass along nonetheless...

There are plenty of ways to measure the enthusiasm gap between the Democratic and the Republican race. The fact that nobody raised more money on the GOP side than Ron Paul, who is being excluded from the New Hampshire debate held by the Republican house organ Fox News, is one example. The fact that Paul backers are trying to game the system in Montana by easily becoming party officers in the state just by asking to do so, is another. But crowds in a close state are significant, too. And the Iowa and New Hampshire polls for the general election for the most part puts the Democrats well in front. That's where they're most known and have seen their records the most up-close.

Regardless of who wins Iowa, that could be the most significant outcome of these early primaries.