Iowa Post-Mortem

Well, I was at a debate watch party that ended up not having any WiFi, so I wasn't able to update. But here are some disconnected thoughts:

1) The big winner is the Democratic Party. 236,000 Democrats came out versus about 115,000 Republicans, a 2:1 ratio, in a state where it's easier to vote in the Republican caucus, in a state with same-day registration so anyone can go to any caucus, in one of the three swing states that swung in 2004. Democrats CRUSHED Republicans here and even managed to get 30%-plus turnout statewide, for a two-hour meeting. That's very significant, and bodes very well for the future (especially because the coalition will be strong no matter who wins).

2) A hearty congratulations to Barack Obama. Independents were not decisive; Obama would have won 32-31 among Democrats, according to entrance polls (which appeared to undercount Edwards). Obama really went out and energized young people (he won 57% of Democrats under 30), and that really heartens me. I saw back in October 2006 how he excited young people at a rally at USC. He does represent an opportunity at a new coalition unlike what the Democrats have seen before. The youth vote TRIPLED in Iowa. Now can the media shut up about how young people don't vote?

3) This is also a great day for black America, a hopeful day.

4) Obama goes into New Hampshire as the front-runner, and should he win there, he will continue that trend and become the front-runner nationally. I think Edwards has a firewall in Nevada. If he's not competitive there, it's over. I thought Edwards' Nevada ace in the hole was unions, but he finished third in Iowa among union households, according to the entrance poll, which again seemed to undercount him. I think Clinton is badly wounded. I know that she'd be happy to play the whole "comeback kid" thing, but 2008 is not 1992, and you can't wait until Georgia to win your first primary. Unfortunately, we're front-loaded, and that wave for Obama is not likely to crest in New Hampshire, particularly given his strength among independents.

5) I think Obama's win hurts McCain, who leaves Iowa without a bounce (he tied Thompson for third last night). With many independents likely to vote for Obama, McCain's independent base shrinks. But he might win out of attrition. Romney is very wounded, perhaps fatally. Huckabee just isn't the type of candidate that'll gain traction up there. Giuliani is now frantically trying to get back in the race up there, but his 3% tally in Iowa really looks awful. I think the winner on the Republican side in New Hampshire probably doesn't need much more than 20%.

More in a minute.