McCain Might Want To Reconsider Running For The Republican Nomination

I knew that the establishment right was going apeshit over Mike Huckabee, but I didn't realize that extended to John McCain as well:

Meanwhile, the Republican prospects in the fall just got even dimmer. I say this not only because a weak general election candidate won a primary, but because Mitt Romney’s win pretty much guarantees a bitter fight for the nomination. If you doubt that, here is what Rush Limbaugh said about McCain and Huckabee on his program today: “I’m here to tell you, if either of these two guys get the nomination, it’s going to destroy the Republican Party, it’s going to change it forever, be the end of it.” This week, Rush and his radio mimics have been on the rampage on the party’s modernizers, from Newt Gingrich on over.

This thing will only get uglier.

McCain hasn't won a race this year among Republicans, and in 2000 he never won a closed primary. Most of the races from here on out are closed, so he's going to have some trouble. And we know that McCain has a lot of enemies in DC, though probably not as much as you would expect (he's not all that maverick). Furthermore, McCain's problem with Republicans has just as much to do with wildly changing stances on the issues as Mitt Romney's (though Romney is clearly seen as a more RELIABLE conservative, no matter what the media thinks).

Compare this to, say, John McCain. He's flighty as hell. For years, he's an orthodox conservative. Then he's an orthodox conservative who also supports this one ill-conceived campaign finance restriction. Then he's running for president. Now suddenly Pat Roberston and Jerry Falwell are forces of evil. Then Bush beats him with some sleazy campaign stunts. Now he wants to regulate carbon emissions! And import drugs from Canada! Bush sucks, he's evil and corrupt and incompetent and wrecking the country and oh he's up for re-election well of course I'll strongly support him etc., etc,. etc. Then the establishment warms up to him so he warms up to the establishment. So now he supports the Bush tax cuts and the Bush plan for Iraq and the Bush immigration plan. Oh wait voters don't like the Bush immigration plan? Well then I've learned my lesson and I was never for amnesty and by the way I'm now against carbon curbs. But you know what's great? The surge. And Joe Lieberman in his crazy uncle phase. And David Petraeus. Petraeus is so great that I think civilian control of the military is obsolete and I won't say whether or not I think tax cuts increase revenue but let's cut spending a lot, eh?

In other words, on eighty percent of issues McCain seems to me to be making it up as he goes along. At his best, he's cravenly flip-flopping according to the political headwinds. But other times, he just seems to be acting on whim or out of pique. Or he's coming to middle-ground positions that don't make sense, like "global warming is real and we should stop it, but only through measures that wouldn't actually stop it!" The rest of the time, he's just really, really, really committed to the military and to militarism. Worst of all, like all the other candidates for president, his personal level of experience with foreign policy issues is minimal, but unlike the other candidates he doesn't seem to realize this believing instead that his enthusiasm about the military and for soldiers and soldiering constitutes a close substitute for having real ideas about international relations.

Strangely, McCain has not made the electability argument, which is easily his strongest, and really his only path to victory. Instead, he's trying to out-bamboozle his rivals on Iraq, claiming that the bogus de-Baathification law is somehow an example of "progress." Considering that all of the Republicans have drunk the Kool-Aid on Iraq, I don't see how that sets him apart.

UPDATE: TPM EC has more on those ominous exit polls.

UPDATE II: In addition, Romney is clearly in the lead, with two firsts and two seconds, as well as a convincing win in the largest state. That's all subject to change, of course, and I suspect he'll ignore South Carolina to an extent to focus on the bigger delegate prize in Nevada (because of RNC delegate-stripping; SC is a bigger state) so he can notch another victory.