New Hampshirin'

So far, Clinton is keeping it close in early returns. If it's 3-5 points, I think it's a wash and everybody's still in this race. Larger than that and the Clinton campaign has a tough task.

Numbers here.

... Fun stuff from the Concord Monitor:

Someone named Albert Howard is crushing Alan Keyes, 50-8.
Joe Biden, who dropped out, has more votes than Mike Gravel.
Even with 10% voting, a lot more Democrats in the vote count than Republicans.

UPDATE: Hilarious.

CHRIS MATTHEWS: Well you say the word moderate with a rather unpleasant look on your face. What is a moderate in the Republican Party as you describe that term?

TOM DELAY: Well that’s a person who likes to think a lot.

CHRIS MATTHEWS: [Laughter] Is that bad news in your party? Too much thought?

Thinking is hazardous to a Republican's health.

Too close to call on the Democratic side, according to the exit polls. Expect massive spinning. NBC just called it for McCain on the Republican side. This is actually good news for John McCain.

...let me be contrarian and say that this is good news for Mike Huckabee. Romney is fatally wounded (sorry, Tagg!) and the road to the nomination still goes through South Carolina, where Huckabee is 20 points up and didn't hurt himself tonight. Plus Huckabee is leading in Florida and Giuliani is back in fourth (and anyway, Giuliani's done; he actually competed in New Hampshire and got crushed). I still think Huckabee's the money bet.

Clinton still in front on the Dem side.

UPDATE II: Clinton up by 3,357 votes with 26% of the vote in. The exit polls are apparently within 1 or 2 points. This is going to be a nailbiter. And considering these last couple days of just rampant media sexism, good for her. We may well have an actual primary race after all, and I would be thrilled with that. I've been bashing this "California matters" thing for very specific reasons. I would very much LIKE for California to matter, as much as I'd like every state to matter. Let's have all of America weigh in on who gets to become our next President.

UPDATE III: Hillary's lead is holding with 1/3 of the vote in. McCain comes out to the strains of Rocky and says "we sure showed 'em what a comeback looks like." Make me barf. Good luck in a closed Republican primary, John.

UPDATE IV: The NBC crew is audibly laughing at McCain's speech. It really was quite horrible.

Meanwhile, Obama is within 2,300 votes of Clinton with about 40% or so returns in.

UPDATE V: Matthews just said we should "let go" of McCain's mistake to read a prepared speech. Screw him. Really, was he cutting a lot of slack to Howard Dean in Iowa in 2004? But they actually are all over McCain, just completely ripping him over the low-energy, rote speech. Perhaps it was past his bedtime?

This Democratic race is very, very interesting. New Hampshire is really confounding the pollsters. They're grabbing at something, that the "tears" speech helped her. Well, then that would be tremendous news, because it would be a pushback on the media's horrific treatment of her. If the media can't break a candidate, that's a good thing for democracy.

UPDATE VI: Just read on Open Left that Michael Whouley was working on Hillary's campaign in New Hampshire. I always thought he was an Iowa guy, but that puts this in a new perspective. Whouley worked wonders for John Kerry in Iowa back in 2004, against all expectations.

Edwards is kind of done now, mainly because this is hardening into a two-person race. And to the extent that you believe the "tears incident helped her" narrative, he definitely helped push that a lot with his insensitive remarks, not to mention lashing out at her at the debate. I hate to say it, but he might want to consider dropping out.

UPDATE VII: 57% of the voters were women, and Hillary won women by 13 points according to exit polls. Also, the Obama campaign is claiming that more independents went to McCain than they expected, and they say it's due to tracking polls showing Barack well in the lead (so people switched over). I don't totally buy that, but it could have moved enough votes.

UPDATE VIII: Dartmouth College is still out. Clinton supporters are "guardedly optimistic" but looking at that. They're up 4,000 votes right now with 60% in. Clinton is going to be able to declare victory here. Whether Obama will or not remains to be seen.

UPDATE IX: I fucking love Rachel Maddow. She just relayed to Chris Matthews' face that many in the blogosphere (she cited Talking Points Memo specifically) are blaming HIM and his misogyny as the reason undecideds broke late for Clinton. Matthews laughed it off, but there was some real bitterness there.

This is glorious. If the media can understand that their catty, elitist, high school Heathers-like mentality will ultimately backfire, maybe they'll shut their mouths for a second and rethink their job description.

UPDATE X: Listening to John Edwards' speech. He ain't dropping out, not by a longshot. The speech is pretty darn similar to his in Iowa. But in this one he keeps harping on "the 99% who have not been heard in this democracy."

UPDATE XI: NBC just called it for Clinton.

A loss for sexism. A win for those who can't stand Chris Matthews and the media.

Now let's get back to fucking policy.

UPDATE XII: Put those speeches from Clinton and Obama up against McCain's. I think the winner is the Democratic Party. How about we throw out the results from Iowa and New Hampshire and just wipe the slate clean? This is good for America for nobody to be crowned early, for no rubber stamp. I have to admit I was sucked into the power of momentum. It didn't hold. Let's fight on from here, and let's pay attention to what matters.