Post-South Carolina Thoughts

• The turnout was ridiculous. 100,000 more voters participated in the Democratic primary than in the Republican primary in SOUTH CAROLINA. The youth turnout tripled, too. This is what you have to look at when determining the horse race in the general election. I'm not saying South Carolina is in play, but I think a 35-state sweep for the Democrats is not out of the question given these numbers. Of course, it's very early.

• Obama's speech was pretty amazing, and the "past versus future" frame is very significant. I think Obama has a real chance to narrow the gap in the February 5 states. I think you may see a real surge to him now.

• Not only did Obama get a moving endorsement from Caroline Kennedy today ("A President Like My Father"), but Ted Kennedy will endorse as well. This does have the feeling of a snowball moving downhill.

• Um, media? The polls, which you lambasted for being so "off" in New Hampshire, were actually just as off in South Carolina. They just were in the direction of Obama instead of Clinton. If you're going to go off the rails when Clinton wins, seems to me you have to do the same thing here.

My point, actually, is that primary polls are very, very hard to pinpoint, and the media needs to stop relying on them.

• People are grumbling about Clinton wanting to seat the delegates in Michigan and Florida. I think that's wrong, but remember, uncommitted got 40% of the vote in MI. And everyone's on the ballot in Florida. The difference between Hillary and Uncommitted in Michigan is 18 delegates. Given Obama's big win I don't expect the
Florida spread to be much more than that.

This is not that big a deal. If it's that close then Edwards' delegates will be far more decisive.

• This is what caught me in Obama's speech:

When I hear that we’ll never overcome the racial divide in our politics, I think about that Republican woman who used to work for Strom Thurmond, who’s now devoted to educating inner-city children and who went out onto the streets of South Carolina and knocked on doors for this campaign. Don’t tell me we can’t change.

I want to hear more about that.