Whoever Loses, We're All Winners

The smart money continues to be on Obama today, with the final poll giving him a wider lead and showing Clinton sinking into third, which would be quite interesting if it's a significant enough spread. Obviously these caucuses, the leaders of whom never even allow the final numbers to be shown because the "winner" might conflict with the candidate who got the most votes, are ridiculous, and I hope they get a decent Viking funeral today. But the real impact, the story everybody should be running tomorrow but won't, is that the Democrats will pummel the Republicans tonight on turnout.

Thousands more Iowa independent voters are expected to turn out for Democrat presidential candidates than Republicans at today’s Iowa caucuses.

Iowa independents are expected to follow the lead set by their national peers in 2006. Nationwide, independents backed Democrats heavily in the watershed 2006 elections, in part out of a rejection of President Bush and a loud cry for change that has continued into the 2008 campaign, strategists in both parties agree.

Recent polls have shown the percentage of Iowa independents planning to participate in the Democrat caucuses is far higher than those who say they’ll caucus for Republicans. Turnout for the Democrats is projected to be higher than Republicans, perhaps double.

Considering that more Democrats will caucus than Republicans, that's as high as a 70-30 spread among independents. And they have to register for the party on site. This makes Iowa very likely to go blue in November, despite the fact that it was a very close state in 2004. I think we could absolutely see as much as 175,000 caucus goers for the Democrats tonight, while projections for the Republicans are around 80,000.

That's the real story coming out of Iowa.