The Ace In The Hole

Anyone who says they know what's going to happen on Super Tuesday tomorrow is lying. It's just not reliable to go by this wave of polls that is coming out; primary polls this cycle have been notoriously off by several points. Charlie Cook did an extremely close reading by Congressional district, and the conventional wisdom is that Clinton and Obama will not be separated by more than 100 delegates. That's why Obama's camp is setting the bar right at that number. As long as they don't crater, and as long as they're close or even in the delegate lead, the juiciest rumor is that the white knight will ride in.

Today I’m going to say it aloud: former Vice President Al Gore is rooting for Obama for president and the question is not if, but when, he says it aloud.

Ironically, the political gossiper over at The American Spectator known as The Prowler has better surveillance tools at hand than the wonks at TPM’s Election Central, The Atlantic or The New Republic who have been trying to swat down this idea without having a clue themselves as to what the Nobel Prize winner really thinks. But the time draws near when they’ll all go, “Doh!” [...]

Remember that there were good reasons for the Obama campaign to hold back Kerry’s endorsement until after the New Hampshire primary. First, it would have raised expectations even higher for New Hampshire since Kerry had won it in ‘04 and hails from the neighboring state. Second, waiting turned out to be a master-stroke, opening the floodgates for the bigfoot endorsements by others (McCaskill, Napolitano, Sebelius, Nelson of Nebraska and of course a parade of Kennedys); Kerry started the stampede heading into South Carolina and Tsunami Tuesday.

There would be two drawbacks to rolling Gore out now. One, is that Obama is up against a rival camp that loves the play the “politics of pile on” (its words) card, also known as the victim card. It worked in New Hampshire and at this point the Obama camp doesn’t want to give Clinton an opening to portray its candidate as ganged up on by the boys. The Tsunami Tuesday cycle is Kennedy’s, with sizeable ensemble performances by McCaskill, Sebelius and Napolitano (as in this Wall Street Journal Op-Ed today) and it’s working. But once the dust settles from Tuesday, more shots in the arm will be needed, especially prior to the Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4. That would be better timing for a Gore endorsement.

The second reason is Tennessee. It’s one of the Tsunami Tuesday states where Clinton enjoys a commanding lead (up by 14.5 percent in the Pollster.com average, and by 13 in the RealClearPolitics average). For Gore to come out now, only to be perceived (again) as not being able to carry his own state, would erase the benefit of his support after Tsunami Tuesday.

Al Giordano has been pretty right about things in this cycle.

I don't know if a Gore endorsement would be game, set and match, but it would significantly close the circle, and presumably start up another rush of residual endorsements to Obama. I would imagine it could be huge in the Wisconsin primary on February 19, if not on Super Tuesday II on March 4, when Texas and Ohio go to the polls. By the way, I think this will end right there. The candidates will have two weeks to compete in those two big states, and I feel like the momentum will lead to a definitive winner. And the loser will face tremendous pressure from the inside to drop out for the good of the party. And they will. So fear not this spectre of a brokered convention and a nasty primary that drags on for months. Especially with Al Gore potentially in Obama's corner.

UPDATE: Mark Penn and Howard Wolfson tepidly endorse my March theory, although they also add that it could go to Pennsylvania on April 22 or even the convention. I think April is a possibility (and a month of camping out in my birthplace of PA would be very interesting), but March is more likely as a knockout punch.