Color Me Surprised

Either we had a fair election in Pakistan, or Dictator Musharraf is so reviled that the results couldn't be countermanded:

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Pakistanis dealt a crushing defeat to President Pervez Musharraf in parliamentary elections on Monday, in what government and opposition politicians said was a firm rejection of his policies since 2001 and those of his close ally, the United States.

Almost all the leading figures in the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, the party that has governed for the last five years under Mr. Musharraf, lost their seats, including the leader of the party, the former speaker of Parliament and six ministers.

Official results are expected Tuesday, but early returns indicated that the vote would usher in a prime minister from one of the opposition parties, and opened the prospect of a Parliament that would move to undo many of Mr. Musharraf’s policies and that may even try to remove him [...]

The results were interpreted here as a repudiation of Mr. Musharraf as well as the Bush administration, which has staunchly backed Mr. Musharraf for more than six years as its best bet in the campaign against the Islamic militants in Pakistan. American officials will have little choice now but to seek alternative allies from among the new political forces emerging from the vote.

It's amazing how you impose martial law and remove the independent judiciary and all of a sudden people get their back up.

Based on unofficial results, the Pakistan Peoples Party (the party of the late Benazir Bhutto) would have 110 seats in the National Assembly (out of 272), the Pakistan Muslim League-N (the party of Nawaz Sharif) would have 100, and Musharraf's party (the Pakistan Muslim League-Q) would have just 20 or 30 seats. Turnout was low, as voters feared violence, but the violence was also mercifully low.

The question of course is whether or not the opposition parties will attempt to remove Musharraf, and if so what resistance they will get from the military, and how the Bush Administration will react. Of course, with Musharraf losing badly the Administration looks even sillier for hitching their wagons to his star. In fact, it was likely that the main effect of that hitching was this crushing electoral defeat. If Musharraf leaves the country, as appears possible, the possibility exists for a leader in Pakistan hostile to American interests. All because, as Joe Biden is fond of saying, we don't have a Pakistan policy, we have a Musharraf policy.

Meanwhile, the Islamist parties lost in the areas around the tribal region where the Taliban and Al Qaeda are prominent. This, of course, is probably because they don't need the validation of the vote to rule when they have the machine gun.

Still, this is quite hopeful, that a dictator was so fully rejected that he could not even hold back the challenge to his own power. Between this and Kosovo's independence being recognized by the US and other leading European countries, I'm almost hopeful about democracy.